Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Grain and oilseed markets are seeing slight changes ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, which will be the USDA’s first look at the 2020/21 supply and demand numbers.
  • This week we should also see details on the call between the U.S. and Chinese, where they will discuss details and progress on the Phase 1 trade deal.
  • President Trump said in a tweet over the weekend that the country will start buying $3 billion in surplus dairy products, meat, and fresh produce from the U.S. farmer.  The program is part of the $2.3 trillion aid package passed by Congress in March.
  • Temperatures across several eastern corn belt states hit hard freeze levels over the weekend, raising concern of what kind of damage was done to jointing wheat and any crops that have emerged.
  • As of 7:15 AM: Crude oil up 0.26 at 25.06, Dow futures down 248 ticks at 24,038, and the U.S $ index down 371 ticks at 100.140.                          

 Corn

  • Speculation on rising preventative plant acres is in the works right now as some parts of the corn belt battle wet conditions.  The insurance price vs. current new crop futures would also suggest growers won’t push to get acres in if they don’t need to.
  • Average carryout numbers of 3.420 billion bushels by trade participants will weigh on the market in today’s session, this would be some of the highest carryout numbers since the 1980’s.
  • Planting progress is expected to be in the 70-72% range in this afternoons report.  This compares to 51% last week, 28% last year, and 56% average.
  • Friday’s CFTC report put corn funds short 246,301 contracts; the shortest since May 14, 2019.
  • Spreads: K/N 0, N/Z 16 cent carry, Z/N 25 ¼ carry.

Outlook: Slightly higher trade and narrow ranges on the overnights should spill over for quiet markets during the day trade.

 Oilseeds

  • Tomorrow’s report projects 2020/21 carryout to be at 440 million bushels vs. 480 million bushels for 2019/20. 
  • The call this week between U.S. trade rep Lighthizer and Chinse Vice-Premier Liu He will give the market further insight into how the Phase 1 deal looks.  With a weak Brazil Real and plentiful supply, it makes traders question how many soybeans they will truly buy from the U.S. until they must.
  • Brazilian oilseed association group ABIOVE raised their estimate for Brazil’s export program to 77 MMT vs. 75.3 MMT previously and 76.5 MMT from the USDA.
  • Funds were quiet last week and bought only 4,538 contracts, putting their net positions short 2,961 contracts.
  • Spreads: K/N 1’4 cent carry, N/X 5’0 cent carry, X/N 8’6 cent inverse.

Outlook: Mixed to higher trade this morning as we don’t expect much for price action today ahead of tomorrow’s report.

 Wheat

  • Total wheat production this year is expected to be at 1.847 billion bushels vs. 1.920 billion bushels last year.
  • Much welcomed relief should hit most of Kansas and Oklahoma as forecasts show rains this week.
  • Traders will watch how spring wheat planting progressed over this last week.  Progress is expected to be at 55% complete vs. 29% last week and 70% on average.
  • The northern 1/3 of South Dakota sees their final spring wheat planting date this Thursday, while North Dakota has from May 31 to June 5.
  • Spreads: Chicago N/U 3’0 cent carry; Kansas City N/U 7’2 cent carry; Minneapolis N/U 10 ½ cent carry.

Outlook: Mixed trade to start the morning, expect non-eventful trade through the day as traders get ready for tomorrow’s report.