5/12/2020 7:10:25 AM
- Energy markets are stronger on news that Saudi Arabia will cut an additional 1 million barrels/day from the original OPEC+ agreement.
- Today’s WASDE report will be released this morning at 11 a.m. central time. The report is expected to give the bears of the market plenty to trade and leave the bulls sitting empty handed.
- Markets watch the relationship between China and the U.S. closely as President Trump can either “force” China to fulfill its commitments or put pressure on them to take blame for the virus outbreak.
- China plans to boost corn imports for 2020/21 from the U.S. to 5 MMT, this is up from the 4 MMT the year prior. Total soybean imports are expected to climb from 91 MMT in 2019/20 to 93.6 MMT in 2020/21.
- As of 7:00 AM: Crude oil up 1.38 at 25.52, Dow futures up 122 ticks at 24,244, and the U.S. $ index down 360 ticks at 99.905
- 2020/21 carryout numbers remain the big talking point ahead of the report today, with the average estimate at 3.420 billion bushels. Which would be a 63% increase from 2019/20.
- Export inspections for corn stays strong at 51.5 million bushels, well above the 38.8 million bushels needed to meet the USDA forecasted number.
- Dr. Cordonnier lowered his corn production estimated for Brazil by 1 MMT to 96 MMT. He kept his estimate for Argentina steady at 49 MMT. For both, he has a neutral to lower bias going forward.
- Planting progress came in slightly below estimates at 67%, compared to the 5-year average of 56%. Emergence was at 24% compared to the 5-year average of 22%.
- Spreads: K/N ¾ cent carry; N/Z 16 ½ cent carry; Z/N 25 ½ carry.
Outlook: Corn futures saw quiet trade on the overnights as it trades slightly weaker.
- Traders will look for confirmation of the rumored 1 MMT of soybeans that China booked for late summer delivery. Although encouraging, there is still speculation if China can meet its requirements for Phase 1.
- Inspections yesterday came in below the 27.2 million bushels needed at 18.2 million bushels.
- Dr. Cordonnier kept his Brazil soybean crop estimate steady at 121 MMT, harvest is virtually complete with only a few areas left to harvest. He kept his estimate for Argentina soybean production steady at 50 MMT. Both countries have a neutral to lower bias.
- Planting progress was reported at 38% compared to the 5-year average of 23%. The first week of emergence was reported at 7% compared to 4% average.
- Board crush values continue to fall, July crush values have hit their lowest level since October 2019.
- Spreads: K/N 2 ½ cent inverse, N/X 3’0 cent carry.
Outlook: Higher trade to start the day as the continued hope that China will buy U.S. beans.
- Frost damage to the SRW wheat crop is expected to be minimal and HRW wheat areas expect to see rains this week to continue to ease dry conditions.
- Northern plains will see nice temperatures to keep on planting spring wheat, but the odds for rain remain above average.
- The USDA Ag Attaché to Canada forecasts their planted area to be the largest since 2013/14 and the 2nd largest on record.
- The winter wheat crop rating fell 2% to 53% G/E with heading at 44% compared to 50% on the 5-year average.
- Spring wheat planting progress came in at 42% while the average is 63%. Emergence is at 17% with the average at 29%.
- Spreads: Chicago N/U 3 ¾ cent carry; Kansas City N/U 7 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis N/U 10 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Weaker trade as we head into the day session as wheat areas that need rain get it and frost damage won’t be as harsh as originally thought.