Morning Highlights with Export Sales


Highlights

  • There will be no grain trading on Friday, April 10th as the markets are closed for the Good Friday/Easter holiday.

  • The WASDE report is scheduled for today at 11:00 CST.

  • There is a lot of tension ahead of the OPEC and non-OPEC virtual meeting scheduled for 9:00 central time.  Some analysts have speculated the results of the meeting could move crude oil prices higher or lower by $10 from the current level.
  • The USDA will investigate why higher beef prices due to corona virus hoarding did not translate into higher cattle prices for farmers. 
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 AM: May crude oil was up $.84 at $25.83 per barrel, April gold up $26 at $1,692, US Dollar Index is up 0.016 at 100.135, and Dow futures up 780 at 23,434.

Corn

  • Corn is trading higher overnight by 2 cents.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report show that corn ending stocks have a pretty wide range between 1.792 and 2.150 billion bushels. World ending stocks have a huge range of 8 million tons between 293 and 301 million tonnes.  

  • Yesterday’s ethanol numbers were shocking. Production dropped by a record 168,000 barrels to 672,000 barrels per day. This is the lowest production number in over a decade and the lowest total since the US ethanol was just ramping up.  Ethanol stocks are hit new all-time highs.

  • CONAB raised their Brazilian corn crop estimate by 1.8 million tonnes from 100.043 to 101.868 million tons.  

  • Export sales were really strong at 1,848,900 tonnes compared to expectations of 700,000-1,200,000.

  • Spreads: K/N 5.50 cent carry; N/U 4.75 cent carry; U/Z 9 cent carry.

     

Outlook:  Corn is slightly higher in very tight overnight trade. The report number will dictate price action today.  

 

Oilseeds

  • Soybeans are 1 cent higher in overnight trade, with soybean meal unchanged and soybean oil is up $0.06 per lb.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE show that soybean ending stocks have a range between 385 and 475 million bushels. World ending stocks have a huge range of almost 8 million tons between 97 and 104.85 million tonnes.

  • Export sales were 523,500 compared to expectations of 400,000-900,000.

  • CONAB lowered their Brazilian soybean crop estimate by over 2 million tonnes from 124.205 to 122.060 million tonnes.

  • Malaysian palm oil was 51 ringgits lower, settling at 2,358 ringgits. This was the first time this week prices retreated.

  •  Spreads: K/N 7.5 cent carry; N/Q 3 cent carry; Q/X 3.25 cent carry.

 

Outlook: Beans had a 7 cent range overnight and are currently a couple better as the market awaits the WASDE.

 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets are much better in the overnight session, with Chicago and Kansas City up 6 cents, while Minneapolis is 3 cents higher.

  • Export sales were 258,600 compared to expectations of 50,000-200,000.

  • Russia has shipped its first cargo of wheat to Saudi Arabia.  The Saudis relaxed import specs thus allowing Russian wheat in.

  • Dry weather across much of Europe is causing concern about wheat production. 

  • Spreads: Chicago K/N .75 cent inverse; Kansas City K/N 6.50 cent carry; Minneapolis K/N 9.50 cent carry.

     

Outlook: The wheat market is pulled higher by KC wheat and the adverse weather outlook for the southern plains.