Morning Highlights with Exports


Highlights

  • The October WASDE report will be released today at 11:00 AM Central.
  • Upper level trade talks between the U.S. and China will be taking place today and tomorrow. There have been conflicting reports of the success of lower level talks earlier in the week. If a trade deal is not reached by October 15th, the U.S. is scheduled to increase tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 AM Central: November crude oil at $52.93 up $0.34 per barrel, October gold at $1,509.10 up $3.00; the DJIA at 26,346.01 up 181.97, and the U.S. Dollar at 98.743 down 0.375.
  • Last trading day for October soymeal, soyoil, and lean hog futures is on October 14th. October lean hog options also cease trading on the 14th.

 Corn

  • Corn traded in a narrow range overnight, as the trade awaits the WASDE report later today.
  • Weekly export sales were 284,400 tonnes of corn.
  • CONAB is projecting the Brazilian 2019-2020 total corn crop to be 98.389 million tonnes versus 100.046 million tonnes in 2018-2019.
  • China sold 78,759 tonnes of corn from their state reserves at auction, which was 2.24% of the total offer. The average selling price was 1,743 yuan per tonne.
  • The average trade estimate for the U.S. corn yield is 167.5 bpa, harvested acres is estimated at 81.649 million acres, crop production is estimated at 13.684 billion bushels, the U.S. 2019-2020 carryout is estimated at 1.784 billion bushels, and the 2019-2020 world carryout is estimated at 298.27 million tonnes.

 Outlook:  Steady as the market waits for the WASDE.

Oilseeds

  • Soybeans traded both sides overnight as the market looks for information regarding the progress of U.S. China trade talks. Conflicting reports have been emerging, adding some confusion to the market about if any progress has been made. Soybeans have come back close to unchanged this morning, as the trade is now waiting for the WASDE report.
  • Weekly export sales were 2,095,500 tonnes of soybeans; 364,700 tonnes of soymeal; and 1,200 tonnes of soyoil.
  • CONAB is projecting the Brazilian 2019-2020 soybean crop at 120.393 million tonnes versus 115.030 million tonnes in 2018-2019.
  • There were 159 deliveries of October soymeal and 41 deliveries of October soyoil.
  • Chinese soybeans were up 2 ¼ and settled at 3,401 yuan per tonne. Soymeal was up 1.10, settling at 2,951 and soyoil was up 5, settling at 5,986. Malaysian palm oil was up 5 ringgits and settled at 2,201.
  • The average trade estimate for the U.S. soybean yield is 47.3 bpa, harvested acres is estimated at 75.705 million acres, crop production is estimated at 3.583 billion bushels, the U.S. 2019-2020 carryout is estimated at 521 million bushels, and the 2019-2020 world carryout is estimated at 96.46 million tonnes.

 Outlook: Steady to higher as the market waits for the WASDE.

Wheat

  • The wheat markets were stronger overnight, with Minneapolis leading the way higher and Chicago and Kansas City following. Minneapolis is being pulled higher by a blizzard threat to the Northern Plains. Chicago wheat has been enjoying short covering, and the December contract is trading above the 100-day moving average of $5.03.
  • Weekly export sales were 521,900 tonnes of wheat.
  • Japan bought 114,012 tonnes of food quality wheat from The U.S. and Japan. The U.S. part of the purchase included 24,014 tonnes of western white, 11,505 tonnes of hard red winter, and 24,533 tonnes of dark northern spring.
  • China sold 15,207 tonnes of imported wheat from their state reserves at auction, which was 13.26% of the total offer. The average selling price was 2,000 yuan per tonne.
  • The average trade estimate for the 2019-2020 carryout is 1.015 billion bushels and the 2019-2020 world carryout is estimated at 285.17 million tonnes.

 Outlook: Higher on poor weather and short covering.