Morning Highlights with Exports
11/29/2019 7:53:50 AM
- The U.S. signed into law the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, supporting Hong Kong and angering China. China warned that they would respond with “firm counter measures”.
- The ag markets will have an early close of 12:05 Central today. Trade will likely have a light volume as many market participants take the day off.
- The CFTC Commitment of Traders release will be delayed until December 2nd at 2:30 PM Central.
- Outside markets as of 7:00 AM Central: January crude oil at $58.06 down $0.05; DJIA at 28,164 up 42 points; gold at $1,455.40 up $2.00; US Dollar Index at 98.477 up 0.077.
- Weekly export sales were 806,800 tonnes, close to the upper end of estimates between 400,000 and 900,000 tonnes.
- The French corn crop was reported at 92% harvested as of November 25th versus 88% the week prior.
- The European Commission raised their 2019/2020 corn production estimate from 66.6 million tonnes to 67.1 million tonnes.
- Spreads: Z/H 10 ½ cent carry; H/K 5 ¾ cent carry; K/N 5 ¼ cent carry/ Z/N 21 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: 1-2 higher to start
- Weekly soybean export sales were 1,664,000 tonnes, well above estimates between 600,000 and 1,200,000 tonnes, soymeal sales were 93,200 tonnes below estimates between 150,000 and 300,000 tonnes, and soyoil sales were 14,800 tonnes, within estimates between 5,000 and 30,000 tonnes.
- Agroconsult is estimating that Brazil’s soybean planting is 77% complete versus 87% complete last November. They estimate Brazil’s 2019/2020 soybean crop to be 124 million tonnes, unchanged from their prior estimate and up from last year’s 118 million tonnes.
- Malaysian palm oil was up 21 ringgits and settled at 2,744 ringgits.
- Chinese soybeans were down 6 ½ and settled at 3,366 yuan per tonne, soymeal was up 2.30 and settled at 2,754 yuan per tonne, and soyoil was up 46 and settled at 6,270 yuan per tonne.
- Spreads: F/H 14 ½ cent carry; H/K 14 ¼ cent carry; K/N 12 ½ cent carry; F/N 41 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: 1-2 lower to start on U.S.-China tension
- Weekly export sales were 612,700 tonnes, above estimates between 300,000 and 600,000 tonnes.
- French wheat planted is reported at 80% as of November 25th versus 74% the week prior. Crop conditions were 75% good to excellent versus 78% the week prior.
- Russia’s agriculture ministry lowered their 2019 wheat crop forecast from 78 million tonnes to 75 million tonnes.
- The European Commission reduced their estimate for 2019/2020 wheat production from 147.0 million tonnes to 146.8 million tonnes.
- Spreads: Chicago Z/H 1 ¾ cent inverse; Kansas City Z/H 10 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 20 cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed to start, winter wheat higher and spring wheat lower.