Morning Wire


Highlights

  • President Trump undercut the commodity markets Sunday with a single tweet. He indicated that if China didn’t accept the trade deal offered by the US by Friday, there would be an increase from 10% to 25% on $325 billion in good from China. In response, China is considering not coming to the US to negotiate further.

  • Crude oil is trading lower on concerns that Trump will enforce additional tariffs thereby slowing China’s economy and the demand for oil. 

  • Weather forecasts are calling for increased rain by midweek which is expected to slow corn planting.

  • Asian markets ended lower on Monday following concerns that Trump will implement additional tariffs Friday. The Hang Seng was off 2.9% at 29,209.73, ShangHai Composite was 5.58% lower at 2,906.46. The Dow Jones Industrial is off 461 points at 25,044.3.    

  • Outside markets as of 6:30am CT: Dollar up .04% at 97.560, crude oil is down $0.35 at $613.59, gold is up $1.1 at $1,285.10.

     

Corn

  • Weather remains the critical component of the corn market as traders await the panting progress tonight. The five-year average is 47%. The trade is looking for 25% planted.    

  • There were 590 deliveries with the next available date being May 2nd.

  • Consultant Safras is estimating the Brazilian corn crop at 101.8 mmt, that’s up from last year’s 99.6 mmt.  

  • Saudi Arabia’s SAGO bought 840 tmt of barley from the EU and the Black Sea region at a price of $193.03 per ton.

 

Outlook:  8 to 10 cents lower on Trumps tweet.  

 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean complex was rocked overnight when the President indicated he would be increasing tariffs from 10% to 25% on $325 billion in goods from China on Friday. Soybeans are trading at their lowest level in seven months.

  • Malaysian palm oil futures were down 26 ringgits to 1984 overnight. Concerns that the EU would restrict use of palm oil in its bio fuels had palm trading on 6 months lows.

  • Soybeans in China were down 14 ½ cents trading at 3,395 yuan per tonne.   

  • There were 896 soybean deliveries, 284 soybean meal deliveries, and 671 soybean oil deliveries.

 

Outlook: 15 to 20 cents slower on Trumps tweet.  

 

Wheat

  • Wheat markets traded sharply lower overnight. Following President Trumps tweet the wheat markets are down 5 to 9 cents.

  • The Kansas HRW wheat tour pegged the winter wheat crop at 47.2 bushels per acre up from last year’s 38 bushels per acre.  

  • China’s wheat producing areas are dry with forecasts for continued dryness.

  • South Korea bought 75 tmt of US wheat at a price of $190.15 per ton.

  • Taiwan bought wheat Black Sea for shipment Aug. & Sept. at $207 & $208 per tonne.  

  • There were 30 Chicago wheat deliveries with the next available date May 2nd.

     

Outlook: 5 to 8 cents lower on Trumps tweet.