Morning Wire


Highlights                

  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26. Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.      

  • According to a Bloomberg late Monday afternoon, U. S. AG Secretary Sonny Perdue hopes to have an answer later this week as to whether this round of MFP aid will be offered on prevent-planted acres.                                

  • The Argentine maritime workers union has agreed to end the strike at the main grains port in Rosario. The union will enter a 15-day period of negotiations with the government over wages after ending the strike.  

  • Brazil has halted beef exports to China following an atypical case of mad cow disease in the leading farm state of Mato Grosso. The case was atypical as the 17 year old cow contacted the BSE protein spontaneously, rather than through the feed supply.

  •  According to United Nations sources, Syrian fighters have begun to burn thousands of acres of wheat and other crops in northwest Syria causing thousands of civilians to flee the area as the food supplies are used a “weapon of war.”                                                                            

  • A/0 7:25 A. M. Crude Oil down 22 @ 53.03, Dow Futures up 173 @ 25,043,  U. S. Dollar Index up .0200 @ 97.2360.   

            

Corn

  • Crop Progress Report on Monday afternoon shoed corn planting @ 67 % complete vs 58 5 last week vs the 5-year average of 96 %. The average trade estimates for corn plantings this week was 71 %. Corn emergence was pegged @ 46 % vs 32 % last week vs the 5-year average of 84 %.                  

  • A private brokerage firm raised their estimate of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop to 70.2 million tons from their previous estimate of 68.5 million tons. Their total corn production estimate for Brazil in 18/19 was pegged @ 98.2 million tons. The same firm estimated Brazil’s 18/19 corn exports to 33 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from their may estimate.             

  • Turkey’s TMO issued a series of tenders to purchase a total of 100,000 tons of corn. The tender will close on June 14.

  • India’s MMTC has postponed, for the fourth time, the deadline for offers on the purchase of at least 20,000 tons of non-GMO corn. Offers are now due On June 12. Previous offers were postponed on May 15, May 22 and June 6.                    

Outlook: Lower than expected corn plantings threw more fuel on corn price movement overnight. More rains over the next two weeks, further flooding and the calendar are arguments for extending strength in corn prices.                         

 

Oilseeds                      

  • Crop Progress Report Monday afternoon pegged soybean planting @ 39 % complete vs 29 % last week vs the 5-year average of 79 %. The average trade estimate for soybean plantings was 42 %. Soybean emergence stands @ 19 % vs 11 % last week vs the 5-year average of 56 %.                  

  • USDA estimated April crush @ 171.6 million bushels Monday afternoon vs the average estimate of 170.0 million tons. Estimates ranged from 170.5-171.0 million tons.    

  • Unnamed sources in the trade are expecting China to put approx. 7 million tons of soybeans bought from the U. S. late last year but as yet unshipped in their state reserves as opposed to processing them into soybean oil and meal.

  • Malaysian palm oil futures, tracking related oil gains, broke a three session losing skid overnight to close the benchmark August contract 28 ringgits higher @ 2,056.                                    

Outlook: Prices have been buoyed overnight by continued slow planting progress due to continuing rains. Fundamentals for beans are not great, but short covering continues to add a little “gas’ to soybean prices. Would think it to be advantageous to take note and take action on the higher price moves.                        

 

 Wheat

  • Crop Progress Report on Monday afternoon raised Winter Wheat crop ratings to 64% G/E vs 61 % last week vs the average trade estimate of 59% G/E. Kansas G/E rating was up 2 % to 57 %, Texas up 2% to 64 %, South Dakota up 9 % to 57 %, Montana up 13 % to 87 %, Colorado up 5 % to 80 % while Nebraska was down 3 % to 67 % and Oklahoma was down 9 % to 64 %. SRW state G/E ratings showed Missouri down 1 % to 42 %, Arkansas down 2 % to 55 %, Illinois down 5 % to 30 %, Indiana unchanged @ 53 %, Ohio unchanged @ 32 %. Winter Wheat is 76 % headed vs 66 % last week vs the 5-year average of 84%. The Winter Wheat Condition Index (100 %= approx. normal) was up 1 % on HRW to 103 %, SRW was down 1% to 90 %, SWW was up 2 % to 102 %. Overall Winter Wheat Condition Index was pegged @ 101.1 % vs 100.8 % last week.  Spring wheat plantings reached 93 % complete, right on the average trade estimate vs 84 % last week vs the 5-year average of 96 %. Spring wheat is 69 % emerged vs 47 % last week vs the 5-year average of 84 %. Spring wheat was rated @ 83 % G/E vs 70 % at the same time last year. The Spring Wheat Condition Index was pegged @ 108 % vs 104 % at the same time last year.                                        

  • SovEcon lowered their estimate of Russia’s 2019 wheat crop to 82.6 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 83.4 million tons. Hot, dry weather in May was the reason for the production downgrade. 

  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture will seek to buy 77,042 tons of food-quality wheat in their regular tender that closes Thursday. U. S. and Australian wheat will be included in the purchase. The U. S. portion includes 21,062 tons Western white, 12,585 tons HRW and 24,510 tons of DNS.

  • Jordan is working a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of optional-origin milling wheat. The tender closes on June 12.  

  • KC spot protein premiums were relatively quiet yesterday but ords through 11.20 proteins were up 2-3 cents. The balance of the scale was unchanged.

  • The wheat harvest results we have heard of out of Oklahoma ( few so far to our ears) are those of good yields and low protein. That most likely will be the story as we reach harvest in Kansas, when and if it dries out.                                                                                                    

Outlook: Overnight, wheat prices have experienced a pullback across the board on overall improved crop ratings. KC wheat has seen a rather sharp drop of 13-14 cents.  Rains, some heavy are still slated for HRW areas late Wednesday into Saturday morning. Hot, dry weather continues to be of concern in Russia, Canada and Australia. Weather and harvest or lack thereof, will be predominant inputs into price activity over the next few weeks.  

7:31 AM CN SN SMN BON WN KWN MWN
Prior Settle 424.25 879.00 320.50 27.34 519.75 486.75 563.50
Contract High 445.00 1050.00 364.60 36.00 619.00 640.00 675.00
Daily High 436.00 894.50 327.10 27.73 529.00 497.00 567.00
R2 437.25 896.75 328.00 27.75 539.50 510.75 573.25
R1 430.75 888.00 324.25 27.50 529.75 498.75 568.25
Last Trade 429.25 885.25 323.60 27.54 510.75 472.50 556.00
S1 423.00 876.75 319.50 27.25 509.25 473.00 557.25
S2 421.75 874.25 318.50 27.25 498.50 459.25 551.25
Daily Low 428.25 883.25 322.30 27.38 508.50 471.25 556.00
Contract Low 343.00 791.00 283.10 26.21 418.50 382.00 506.00
Managed $ net 17,000 (109,000) (15,300) (54,300) (34,000) -22800 -1500
,
10 Day MA 413.75 856.00 311.50 27.25 495.50 456.08 551.00
20 Day MA 391.00 840.25 302.75 27.25 471.50 431.50 537.00
50 Day MA 378.00 870.50 306.25 28.00 462.25 429.00 534.50
100 Day MA 383.00 901.00 310.75 29.25 480.25 458.00 552.25
200 Day MA 387.25 908.25 313.75 29.25 512.00 502.25 576.00