Morning Wire


Highlights                

  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26. Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.

  • 75 years-ago today the D-day invasion began on the Normandy Beach. We remember and keep alive in our hearts and minds all of those who fought, lost their lives, and marched to Berlin, liberating those under siege to help keep freedom alive so that we may live our lives as we do today!       

  • The United nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that for the fifth month in a row world food prices rose due to bad weather. The food price index averaged 172.4 points last month vs 170.3 points in April. Prices increased the most for corn and cheese last month.

  • Officials say Mexican President Andreas Lopez Obrador has received a list of U. S. products that might be subject to retaliatory tariffs if the U. S. implements across the board tariffs against Mexican goods on June 10th.                                

  • China says they will allocate nearly $72 million dollars to fight, prevent and control the armyworm infestation that has been found in 18 provinces so far.                                                                                   

  • A/0 7:45 A. M. Crude Oil up 51 @ 52.19, Dow Futures up 60 @ 25,618, U. S. Dollar Index ,down  .2860 @ 97.013 .   

            

Corn

  • Export sales for 18-19 were a negative 8,800 MT vs trade estimates of 500-800 MT. Sales for 19-20 were 23,500 MT vs estimates of 50-250 MT.                      

  • A private analytical firm estimated corn planted acres @ 84.942 million, with a yield of 174 BPA, leading to a production estimate of 13.555 billion bushels.                 

  • Mexican importers have reportedly bought a 35,000-ton corn cargo from Brazil ahead of impending U. S. tariffs being imposed on all Mexican goods by the U. S. on June 10th. News sources say the ship will be loaded and depart June 22nd from the northern Brazil port of Santarem.

  • Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of Brazilian corn in a snap tender that closed late Wednesday.    

  • Overnight, China sold 2,755,251 tons of state-owned reserve corn at auction. The tonnage sold represented almost 69 % of the corn available at the auction.

  • Ukraine has exported 47.3 million tons of grain so far in the 18/19 marketing year compared to 37.4 million tons at the same time last year. Corn exports account for 27.9 million tons of the total.

  • The average estimate for 18/19 corn carryout on Tuesday’s monthly USDA report is 2.123 billion bushels vs the May estimate of 2.095 billion bushels. 19/20 carryout average estimate is 1.917 billion bushels vs the may estimate of 2.485 billion. Estimates for World ending stocks for 18/19 are @ 325.44 million tons vs the May estimate of 325.94 million tons. New crop 19/20 world stock are estimated @ 304.96 million tons vs the May estimate of 314.71 million                         

Outlook: Lower after trading higher in early part of overnight. Weather has been better this week for planting and market attempts to fill gaps in CN19 from 407- 404 and in CZ19 from 422 – 420. Export sales were paltry.                           

 

Oilseeds                      

  • Soybean sales for 18-19 were 510,000 MT vs trade estimates of 200-500 MT. Sales for 19-20 totaled 73,700 MT vs estimates of 50-250 MT. Meal sales for 18-19 totaled 110,800 MT vs trade estimates of 100-250 MT. New crop 19-20 sales were 2,100 MT vs trade estimates of 0-100 MT. Soybean Oil 18-19 sales were 15,400 MT vs trade estimates of 8-25 MT.                       

  • A private analytical firm estimated soybean planted acres @ 85.037 million, with a yield of 51.1 BPA, leading to a production estimate of 4.313 billion bushels.                 

  • Russia and China have signed a series of documents that will allow Russian exports of soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed meal, oilseed cake and beet pulp to expand into China.

  • CME raised Soybean futures maintenance margins by 6.4 % to $1,990 per contract from $ 1,870 per contract for July.        

  • The average estimate for 18/19 soybean carryout on Tuesday’s monthly USDA report is 1.004 billion bushels vs the May estimate of 0.995. New crop 19/20 carryout is estimated 0.973 million vs the May estimate of 0.970 million bushels. Soybean world ending stocks for 18/19 are estimated 2 113.33 million tons vs the May estimate of 113.18 million. New crop 19/20 stocks are forecast 2 112.99 million tons vs the May estimate of 113.09 million.                                             

Outlook: Pressing lower again as weather has been better this week to get some planting done. Rain are to increase across the belt as we get closer to the weekend. Soybean fundamentals do not have much to hang their hat on. Export sales not bad but better planting weather has trumped things for now.                         

 

 Wheat

  • Old crop 18-19 sales were a negative 26,000 MT vs trade estimates of (100 )-200 MT. New crop 19-20 sales were 501,900 MT vs trade estimates of 100-400 MT.                                           

  • A private analytical firm estimated Winter Wheat production @ 1.287 billion bushels, with a BPA yield of 51.1. HRW production was estimated @ 801 million, SRW production was estimated @ 258 million and White Wheat production was pegged @ 228 million bushles. Other Spring Wheat production was estimated @ 568 million bushels.        

  • Japan bought 77,042 MT of food-quality wheat in a regular tender that closed overnight. The purchase included 21,062 tons of U. S. Western White, 12,585 tons of U. S HRW, 24,510 tons of U. S. DNS and 18,885 tons of Australian Standard White.

  • Russian farmers have planted 10.8 million hectares of Spring Wheat so far for the 19/20 season compared to the 8 million hectares that had been planted at the same time last year. The increase is reportedly due to the warm weather and favorable soil moisture levels across the spring wheat regions.

  • Average trade estimates for wheat production on Tuesday’s USDA June report follow: All Wheat 1.883 billion bushels, Winter Wheat 1.251 billion bushels, HRW .765 million bushels, SRW .261 million bushels, White Winter .224 million bushels. World 18/19 ending stocks are forecast @ 274.70 million tons vs the May estimate of 274.98 million. New crop, 19/20 world wheat ending stocks average estimate is 290.00 million tons vs the may estimate of 293.01 million tons.                                                                                                       

Outlook: Not much new happening in wheat. Following corn lower, rain makes grain. Choppy overnight trade, with volatility continuing.