Morning Wire


Highlights                

  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26. Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.

  • Talks between the U. S. and Mexico continue to find a solution to immigration issues before a 5 % tariff on all Mexican goods into the U. S. becomes effective on Monday June 10th. Wire stories say talks are progressing and that Mexico has offered to send troops to it border with Guatemala in hopes of stemming the tide of undocumented migrants entering Mexico on their way to the U. S.          

  • Cofco International is said to be preparing to spent $200 million dollars in Brazil over the next two years for logistics and storage in hopes of expanding shipping volumes for Cofco by 7-10 % over the next five years.

  • The Federal Reserve is said to be thinking about making an interest rate cut maybe as early as the June meeting but more likely in July. The cut is being mulled in response to President Trump’s use of tariffs.

  • Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue may give more answers today about prevent plant acres and MFP payments as he travels to Florida and Georgia to talk about the just signed disaster aid bill or will he wait until Tuesday when he and President Trump travel to council Bluffs Iowa. Time will tell!                                                                                                                    

  • A/0 7:45 A. M. Crude Oil up 56 @ 53.15, Dow Futures up 18 @ 25,763, U. S. Dollar Index down .313 @ 96.674 .   

            

Corn

  • BAGE estimated Argentine corn harvest is 39.3 % complete vs 37 .4 % last week vs the average of 42.8 %.                        

  • South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee bought approximately 65,000 tons of corn earlier this week, in a private deal, most likely sourced from South America. The purchase price was about $211.90/ton c&f plus a $1.25/ton surcharge for port unloading. Cofco is said to be the seller with shipment between August 15 and September 15.                      

  • Some unconfirmed reports hit social media circles late yesterday that Mexico may have bought up to 40 cargos of corn from Brazil, ahead of possible U. S. tariffs next week. Shipment periods were unknown.

  • Consensus seems to be that Monday’s Crop Progress report will show that 80-82 % of the corn crop will have been planted in the U. S. by Sunday. The first looked at corn crop ratings will also be included in Monday’s report.                               

Outlook: Prices down marginally as we head to the break this morning amidst an 8-cent, two-sided range overnight. Weather for planting has been better this week. Market held the gap yesterday in CN19 @ 405 and in CZ19 @ 420. Don’t think the corn upside is over but choppy trade will be the case for now.                           

 

Oilseeds                      

  • BAGE estimated Argentina soybean harvest is just a tick over 96 % complete vs 93 % complete last year.                       

  • Palm oil futures fell overnight on talk of lower exports and a stronger ringgit. The August contract fell 28 ringgits to close at 2,028.                  

  • Monday’s Crop Progress Report is expected to show soybean planting 55-59 % complete.                                                       

Outlook: Choppy two-sided trade should continue. Weather has been conducive for planting in some areas this week. Rains look to return in the 6-10 time-period.                            

 

 Wheat

  • FranceAgriMer estimated in its weekly report that French soft wheat is 80 % G/E, up 1 % from last week’s rating vs 79 % G/E at the same time last year.

  • BAGE estimated wheat planting had reached to 19.7 complete vs 20 % last year vs the 5-year average of 15.8 %.                                                 

  • Russia’s Agriculture Minister Patrushev said Russia will extend their zero-grain export duty for the 19/20 season. The Minster added that Russia’s agriculture exports are on track to reach $45 billion by 2024.

  • Canadian wheat sales to China reached a 14 year high despite a diplomatic spat between the two countries. China bought 1.5 million tons of wheat from Canada from August 2018 to April 2019. That total doubles the pace from a year earlier and is the most wheat China has bought from Canada since 2004-2005.              

  • Spanish farmers are expected to harvest 25 % less soft wheat and 40 % less durum wheat this year. Overall winter grain harvest is expected to be to about a 30 % drop from last years crops due to ongoing dryness.

  • The CCC purchased 116,800 tons of Soft whit wheat from Kalama Export for distribution to Yemen. Prices ranged from $224.87-$227.43. Delivery periods are July 5-15 and July 16-26.                                                                                                          

Outlook: Warm and drier weather this week is bringing the winter wheat crop along. Still lots of wheat in the U. S. and the world. Tuesday’s USDA report will go a long-way in carving the next path for prices. Prices still in the negative side as we close overnight trade.