Morning Wire


Highlights                

  • CHS Hedging will have one person one the eastern leg and one person on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week. Tuesday, crop scouts will be in corn and bean fields in Indiana and Nebraska. Tour updates and results will be available @hedgeit.    

  • Friday August 23rd is the last trade day for September options and the following Friday August 30th is FND for September futures. Plan accordingly!               

  • News print media in Washington D. C. has the White House considering a new tax cut for Americans to help ward off any possible recession woes. Nothing definitive, stay tuned!                                                                                                                   

  • A/0 7:10 A. M. Crude Oil down 20 @ 56.01, Dow Futures up 26 @ 26,144 , U. S. Dollar Index up 59  ticks @ 98.280.   

            

Corn

  • Crop Progress report Monday afternoon pegged corn @ 56 % G/E down 1 % from last week. Corn silking is 95 % vs 90 % last week, 55 % in the dough stage vs 39 % last week and 15 % in the dent stage vs 7 % last week. The Corn Condition Index (100 % =approx. normal) fell 1 % from last week to 97 % vs 103 % at the same time last year. Sorghum G/E rating fell 1% from last week to 65 %.                                  

  • Pro Farmer Crop Tour results from day one estimated corn yield in South Dakota @ 154.08 bpa vs 178.01 bpa last year vs the 3-year tour average of 158.59 bpa. Corn yields in Ohio were pegged @ 154.35 bpa vs 179.57 bpa last year vs the 3-year tour average of 164.38 bpa.                             

  • Dr. Cordonnier left his estimate of U. S. corn production unchanged again this week @ 12.88 billion bushels.

  • Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed in June was pegged @ 49.2 % vs 48.5 % in the same month in 2018.                                  

Outlook: Prices have received a small shot in the arm overnight from declining crop conditions and lower crop production projections from Pro Farmer Tour. Market will probably remain choppy with eyes on tour results and weather. Radar this morning shows plentiful rains in southern and eastern Iowa, heading into severe weather watches for the majority of Illinois.                             

 

Oilseeds                      

  • Soybean G/E category fell 1 % from last week to 53 % on this week’s Crop Progress Report. Soybeans are 90 % blooming vs 82 % last week vs the 5-year average of 96 %. Soybeans setting pods reached 68 % vs 54 % last week vs the 5-year average of 85 %. The Soybean Condition  Index was pegged @ 96 % down from 97 % last week vs 102 % last year.                               

  • Pro Farmer Crop Tour results from day one estimated soybean pods in South Dakota @ 832.85 pods in a 3-by-3 foot square vs 1,024.72 pods last year vs the 3-year tour average of 964.96 pods. Soybean pods in Ohio were pegged @ 764.01 pods in a 3-by-3 foot square vs 1,248.2 pods last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,136.75 pods.

  • Dr. Cordonnier in his weekly update, left his peg for U. S. soybean production unchanged @ 3.39 billion bushels.                            

  • GASC is seeking to purchase 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil in an international tender announced today. Tender deadline is Thursday, August 22. Oils are to arrive by Oct. 10-30.                                                          

Outlook: Declining crop conditions and Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimates being lower have allowed prices to get back about half of yesterday’s losses. Weather, and tour results will be the guiding factors as we mow down the days this week. More rain today for Iowa and Illinois may have negative drag on prices later today.                                

 

 Wheat

  • Crop Progress Report showed Winter Wheat @ 93 % harvested vs 89 % last week vs the 5-year average of 98 %. Spring Wheat G/E rating was up 1 % from last week to 70 %. Spring wheat is 16 % harvested vs 8 % last week vs the 5-year average of 49 %. Spring Wheat Condition Index rose 1 % from last week to 104 %.              

  • Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL announced a tender under a preferential-tariff quota to purchase 576,000 tons of milling wheat and 345,455 tons of durum wheat from the U. S. Offers are due on September 5, 2019 with the wheat to arrive in Morocco by December 31, 2019                                                   

  • On Monday, a vessel was being loaded with wheat out of the French port of Dunkirk for export to China. The 57,000-ton bulk carrier was to head to the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. This would be the first French wheat shipment to China since late 2018, which at that time was the first French wheat shipment to China in five years.                     

  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture will seek to purchase a total of 110,057 tons of food-quality wheat from the U. S. and Canada in its regular weekly tender that closes Thursday. U. S. portion includes 39,472 tons of western white, 12,010 tons HRW and 6,850 tons DNS. Canadian portion is 51,725 tons Western Red Spring.

  • Jordan received only two offers in its tender for 120,000 tons of milling wheat. Glencore and Nibulon submitted offers. Results are awaited.                                                                                                                      

Outlook: Not much to go on here for the poor wheat market. Seems like prices are low enough, but not enough new impetus to push prices higher. Sideways action is probable with corn price movement an influence.