Morning Wire


Highlights               

  • CHS Hedging will have one person one the eastern leg and one person on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week. You will be able to follow and get tour updates from both CHS participants on twitter @hedgeit.   
  • Friday August 23rd is the last trade day for September options. Friday August 30th is FND for September futures. Plan accordingly!!              
  • News print media in Washington D.C. has the White House considering a tax cut to help ward off and possible recession woes. Nothing definitive, stay tuned!!                                                                                                           
  • A/0 8:00 A. M. Crude Oil down 16 @ 56.05, Dow Futures down 2 @ 26,116  @ , U. S. Dollar Index up 54 ticks @ 98.275.  

        

Corn

  • Crop Progress report Monday afternoon pegged corn @ 56 % G/E down 1 % from last week. Corn is 95 % silking vs 90 % last week, 55 % in the dough stage vs 39 % last week and 15 % in the dent stage vs 7 % last week. The Corn Condition Index (100 % =approx. normal) fell 1 % from last week to 97 % vs 103 % at the same time last year. Sorghum G/E rating fell 1% from last week to 65 %.                                 
  • Pro Farmer Tour results from day one pegged corn yields in South Dakota @ 154.08 bushels per acre vs 178.01 bushels per acre last year vs the 3-year tour average of 158.59 bushels per acre. Corn yield in Ohio was pegged @ 154.35 bushels per acre vs 179.57 bushels per acre last year vs the 3-year tour average of 164.38 bushels per acre.                            
  • Recent rains allowed Dr. Cordonnier to leave his u. S. corn production estimate @ 12.88 billion bushels.                                

Outlook: Prices received a bump overnight from declining crop ratings and production estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour. Rains are falling over southern and eastern Iowa this morning and are headed into severe weather watch boxes in Illinois. Sideways, choppy trade will most likely remain to be the fare.                               

  

Oilseeds                     

  • Soybean G/E category fell 1 % from last week to 53 % on this week’s Crop Progress Report. Soybeans are 90 % blooming vs 82 % last week vs the 5-year average of 96 %. Soybeans setting pods reached 68 % vs 54 % last week vs the 5-year average of 85 %. The Soybean Condition  Index was pegged @ 96 % down from 97 % last week vs 102 % last year.                              
  • Pro Farmer Tour results from day one pegged soybean pod counts in South Dakota @ 832.85 pods in a 3-by-3 foot square compared to 1,024.72 pods last year versus the 3-year tour average of 964.96 pods. In Ohio, soybean pod counts were estimated @ 764.01 pods in a 3-by-3 foot square vs 1,248.2 pods last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,136.75 pods.                            
  • Dr. Cornonnier left his peg for U. S. soybean production unchanged @ 3.39 billion bushels.
  • Egypt’s GASC is tendering for 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil. Offer deadline is Thursday August 22nd with the oils arrival in Egypt slated for Oct. 10-30.                                                         

Outlook: Overnight prices have gained back about half of yesterday’s losses on declining crop conditions and lower production estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour. Direction this week will continue to be influenced by weather and tour results.                               

 

 Wheat

  • Crop Progress Report showed Winter Wheat @ 93 % harvested vs 89 % last week vs the 5-year average of 98 %. Spring Wheat G/E rating was up 1 % from last week to 70 %. Spring wheat is 16 % harvested vs 8 % last week vs the 5-year average of 49 %. Spring Wheat Condition Index rose 1 % from last week to 104 %.              
  • Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL announced a tender under a preferential-tariff quota to purchase 576,000 tons of milling wheat and 345,455 tons of durum wheat from the U. S. Offers are due on September 5, 2019 with the wheat to arrive in Morocco by December 31, 2019                                                  
  • On Monday, a vessel was being loaded with wheat out of the French port of Dunkirk for export to China. The 57,000-ton bulk carrier was to head to the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. This would be the first French wheat shipment to China since late 2018, which at that time was the first French wheat shipment to China in five years.                    
  • Japan’s Agriculture Ministry will tender for 110,057 tons of food-quality wheat this week.
  • Jordan made no purchase in it tender for 120,000 tons of milling wheat. Only two companies, Glencore and Nibulon made offers against the tender.                                                                                                                    

Outlook: Not much to go on for the poor wheat market. Prices seem to be low enough but the lack new bullish inputs is keeping a lid on prices. Wheat prices continue to chop, largely following corn.