Morning Wire


Highlights                

  • CHS Hedging will have one person one the eastern leg and one person on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week. You will be able to follow and get tour updates from both CHS participants on twitter @hedgeit.    

  • September Options expire tomorrow Friday August 23rd at the close. FND for September futures is Friday August 30th. Check your positions, orders and plan accordingly!                   

  • The Trump Administration continues to receive intense pressure from farmers and lawmakers over the decision to grant waivers exempting 31 oil refineries from rules requiring them to blend corn-based ethanol into gasoline. The White House is feeling the heat from some of its most ardent supporters! What will be the end-result?  Stay tuned!

  • The first installment of MFP 2 payments are set to begin this month but a reported glitch in the USDA/FSA software in terms of some components of the program will likely mean some producers will not receive their payouts until September.

  • Holy cow!! The U. S. budget deficit is projected to surpass the $1 trillion mark for the 2020 fiscal year. Tax revenues for 2018 and 2019 have fallen more than $430 billion short of what was projected by the CBO in June of 2017.                                                                                                                      

  • A/0 7:50 A. M. Crude Oil up 56 @ 56.05, Dow Futures up 70 @ 26,296, U. S. Dollar Index up 46 ticks @ 98.225.   

            

Corn

  • Export sales for 18/19 totaled 119,300 MT vs trade estimates of 50-400 MT. Sales for 19/20 came in @ 301,600 MT vs trade estimates of 200-600 MT. Sorghum sales for 18/19 totaled                                        

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour on day three scouted fields in Illinois and Iowa. The tour estimated Illinois corn yield @ 171.17 bushels per acre, down from the 2018 estimate of 192.63 bushels per acre vs the 3-year tour average of 188.95 bushels per acre. In Iowa, corn yields in the northwest corner of the state were estimated @ 184.88 bushels per acre vs 186.87 bushels per acre last year, vs the 3-year tour average of 184.12 bushels per acre. In the west-central portion of Iowa, yields were pegged @ 192.71 bushels per acre vs 186.77 bushels per acre last year vs the 3-year tour average of 182.93 bushels per acre. Corn yields in the southwest corner of the Iowa were estimated @ 186.28 bushels per acre vs 179.82 bushels per acre last year vs the 3-year tour average of 185.78 bushels per acre.                                    

  • Overnight, China sold 442,626 tons of corn out of their state-owned reserves. The sale represented just over 11 % of the total corn tonnage offered at the auction.                                  

Outlook: Export sales don’t offer much, prices firm overnight, Pro Farmer Tour continues to find highly variable crops, no threating weather in the forecast. Prices seem to want to bounce a bit for now.                                 

 

Oilseeds                      

  • Soybean export sales for 18/19 totaled 25,900 MT vs trade estimates of (200)-100MT. New crop 19/20 sales totaled 792,600 MT vs trade estimates of 350-700 MT. Soymeal sales for 18/19 came in @ 118,600 MT vs trade estimates of 50-150 MT. Sales for 19/20 totaled 13,400 MT vs trade estimates of 50-200 MT. Soybean oil sales for 18/19 were 2,200 MT vs trade estimates of 5-10 MT.                                         

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois and Iowa on Wednesday. In Illinois, pods were estimated at and average of 997.68 pods vs 1,328.91 pods last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,292.59 pods. In the northwest corner of Iowa, pods counts were estimated @ 1,095.93 vs 1,081.82 last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,098.17. In the west-central portion of Iowa, pod counts were 1,196.06 vs 1,260.09 last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,227.85 pods. Soybean pods in the southwest corner of Iowa were estimated @ 1,221.13 pods vs 1,445.07 pods last year vs the 3-year tour average of 1,319.93 pods.

  • China has been very active buying cargos of soybeans from SAM. Trade talk yesterday had the Chinese buying 9-10 cargos on Tuesday afternoon and some in the trade are estimating that the Chinese have bought up to 50 cargos of SAM soybeans since late last week.                              

  • Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to a six-month high overnight on related oil strength and lower than expected production. The benchmark November contract closed-up 48 ringgits @ 2,256. The close is the highest attained level since February 25th.                                                           

Outlook: New crop sales good, prices seem to be range bound for now. Support 865 basis SX19 with resistance up above @ 878 ¾ then 886 ½.                                 

 

 Wheat

  • Wheat export sales for 19/20 totaled      vs trade estimates of 300-500 MT.                 

  • Tunisia bot 92,000 tons of soft milling wheat for September and LH October shipment depending on the origin. The wheat was purchased in three 25,000-ton cargos and one 17,000- ton cargo. One 25,000-ton cargo was bought @ $210.48 c&f, one @ $ 212.97, one @ $211.89, while the 17,000 cargo was purchased @ $213.39.                                                     

  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 110,057 tons of food-quality wheat in it weekly tender from the U. S. and Canada. The U. S. portion included 39,472 tons of Western White, 12,010 tons of HRW and 6,850 tons of DNS. Canada sold 51,725 tons of Western Red Spring to round out the purchase. Shipment is between Oct. 1 and Oct. 31.

  • Saudi Arabia’s state grain buying agency SAGO is tendering to purchase 780,000 tons of optional-origin animal feed barley. The tender deadline is tomorrow August 23rd with shipment slated for October to December.

  • KC spot premiums posted 11.4 % proteins down 3 cents while posting 13.0-14.0 % proteins up 20 cents.                                                                                                                                                 

Outlook: Wheat export sales continue to be stout, prices probably low enough but hard to break out of the price malaise without new bullish inputs. Choppy trade to continue with a pull from corn price direction.