Morning Wire


Highlights                    

  • CHS Hedging has scheduled an Introduction to Technical Analysis class on January 10th, 2020. In addition, CHS Hedging will offer an Energy Class on January 23rd, 2020. To register for these classes please go to chshedging.com and click on the appropriate link to the class or classes you may be interested in attending.                            

  • Daylight Savings Time ends this Sunday 11-3-19 @ 2:00 A. M. Fall back one hour on your clocks before your head hits the pillow Saturday night.  

  • Daily Price Limits for Grains and Oilseeds have reset today. The Soybean daily limit has changed from 65 cents to 60 cents. 

  • Commerce Secretary Wilber Ross said this morning that the Phase 1 trade agreement with China “appears to be in good shape” and likely to be signed in mid-November. No firm date on the potential signing of the agreement has been set.                                                                                                                                                 

  • A/0 7:10 A. M. Crude Oil up 42 @ 54.60, Dow Futures up 33 @ 27,015, U. S. Dollar Index down .0820 @ 97.249.   

            

Corn                                                

  • FranceAgriMer reported that 65 % of the French corn harvest had been completed by October 28th. Persistent rains have slowed corn harvest this year compared to last year when 96 % of the crop had been cut.  

  • BAGE estimated that Argentine corn planting was 40.2 % complete vs 34.6 % last week vs 35.5 % last year.       

  • Lack of farmer selling in the U. S. continues to help stem the CZ19/CH20 calendar spread. Spread is showing 8 ¾ - 8 ½ this morning with the last trade @ 8 ½ carry.                                                                                             

Outlook: feels like we are continuing to just mark time until the next USDA report on November 8. Don’t see anything between now and then to violate the 3.80-4.00 range we’ve been in basis the CZ19.                                            

 

Oilseeds                      

  • Most of the 1,426 soybean deliveries posted today were re-intentions put out by stoppers yesterday. However, the big note today is that JP Morgan (Cargill) stopped all the deliveries posted today. Oldest date is still 10-29-19.         

  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell 24 ringgits overnight to close the benchmark January contract @ 2,461. Profit taking from an early week buying spree on supply worries and a stronger ringgit were the reasons for the pullback.                                                         

  • Argentine soybean planting is just ramping up after rains eased some dry areas so BAGE did not publish a soybean planting progress this week. Last year, soybean planting in Argentina was 3.5 % complete by November 1st.

  • USDA will report crush numbers today at 2:00 pm DST. The average estimate for September crush is 161.8 million bushels while the average estimate for oil stocks is 1.792 billion pounds.                                                                                                             

Outlook: Overnight strength derived from strong stopper (Cargill) of soybean deliveries. First day of the new month, will money flow help continue the bounce we saw late yesterday and into the overnight?                                                      

 

 Wheat

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) cut its estimate of Argentine wheat production to 18.8 million tons from the previous estimate of 19.8 million tons. Negative weather conditions including dryness, and low temperatures were cited as the reasons behind the cut in production.                      

  • FranceAgriMer estimated that 54 % of the French soft wheat area to be sown for the 2020 harvest was complete by October 28th.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have increased by almost 39 % so far in the 19/20 marketing year led by wheat exports of 10.92 million tons vs 7.40 million tons in the same time period last year.  

  • A Philippine importer has issued an international tender to purchase 35,000 tons of feed wheat. Origins include the Black Sea, South America, U. S. and Australia. Shipment periods will vary depending on origin. The tender deadline is Nov. 5th.

  • China sold 3,286 tons of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves in an overnight auction. The tonnage sold represented almost 7 % of the total offer at the auction.                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Outlook: Back and forth we go with wheat prices across the board. Very little input will continue to make the wheat markets followers, at least until the USDA report next Friday November 8th.