Weekly Market Recap
5/31/2019 3:51:41 PM
Wet weather continued over the Memorial Day weekend as heavy amounts hit Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern Illinois, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Weather concerns are impacting every market due to planting delays in corn and soybeans and flooding in wheat areas. On Thursday night, President Trump said that he will impose a 5% tariff starting June 10th on all goods coming in from Mexico, until illegal migrants coming through Mexico and into our Country stop. He goes on to say the tariff will gradually increase until the illegal immigration problem is remedied at which time the tariffs will be removed. The tariffs are planned to increase systematically to 25% by October 1st. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador responded calling Trump’s policy of America First a fallacy. He also said social problems are not resolved with taxes or coercive measures. No retaliation was threatened, adding he wanted to avoid confrontation. Mexico is the largest trading partner for the US. The tariffs put into question the US, Mexico and Canada trade agreement that is now up for congressional approval.
Crop progress report came in at 58% planted vs. expectations of 63% complete and the 5-year average of 90%. 58% planted is the slowest on record for this time of year and it leaves 39 million acres to plant based on the March prospective plantings estimate. Notable delays are in Illinois where only 35% is planted vs. the 5-year average of 95%. Other states with substantial delays include Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and South Dakota. December 2019 corn reached $4.54 this week, a price not seen on the December contract since July of 2015. It might entice folks to risk planting corn well beyond insurance dates. The Trump administration is expected to announce an end to the ban on higher ethanol blends during the summer, allowing blends containing up to 15% corn-based ethanol to be sold year-round.
Conditions dropped 5% on the good to excellent categories. Notable drops in conditions were Oklahoma down 15% in G/E, Kansas down 5% G/E and South Dakota down 13% G/E. Excessive rain and severe weather are threatening the quality and total production of winter wheat not only in the Southern plains but also in the soft red winter wheat areas of the eastern Corn Belt into the delta. US conditions have deteriorated with the excessive rains and are expected to continue moving lower. Protein content is becoming more of a concern for the winter wheat with the cool and rainy weather on top of possible disease damage. Dryness in the FSU is raising worries for their wheat crop as the forecasts continue to call for more dry weather. Australia is also facing hot and dry weather.
Soybean planting pace was at 29% vs. expectations around 30% and the 5-year average of 66%. Illinois is 14% complete vs. 70% average, Iowa is 32% complete vs. 77% average and South Dakota has 6% done vs. 64% average. Most states had minimal gains in planting week over week as farmers that were able to plant, planted corn to ensure they got it in prior to the final planting insurance dates.
Futures traded mixed to lower over the week. With the poor weather continuing in much of the country, we haven’t seen the typical bump in demand that occurs to kick off the grilling season. Cash trade has been between $114 and $116, and the Fed Cattle Exchange saw 137 head sell in Kansas for $115.00 per cwt. These prices have been in line with the previous weeks. New reports of ASF in North Korea and Vietnam has the disease rapidly spreading outside of China now. Vietnam culled 2 million pigs in order to fight the disease.
WTI futures are sharply lower this morning as the U.S. administration announces new tariffs on Mexican imports. Trade concerns with the Chinese continues to pressure prices as concerns of a global economic slowdown persist. President Trump lifted restrictions on E15 gasoline ending a summertime ban. AAA is reporting the national average for a price for a gallon of gas is $2.825 per gallon compared to $2.845 last week. The price last year during the same period is $2.955.