Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Lots of excitement in yesterday’s markets as news stories were floating around about President Trump changing the RFS. Toward the end of the trading day, the White House released a statement denying that any executive orders on the RFS were being worked on.
  • China’s official PMI came in at 51.6 points, up 0.3 points month-over-month, for February. The Caixin/Markit PMI was also higher for February at 51.7 points, up 0.7 points from the previous month.
  • Friday is the last trading day for March live cattle options.

Corn

  • No corn deliveries were announced.
  • US shipping delays have led to Japanese feed makers dipping into their emergency corn stockpiles to the tune of 330tmt, and now those stockpiles are at significantly low amounts. Balancing will be critical in the first half of March but existing stockpiles and incoming shipments should help feed makers get through.
  • The USDA will release their corn crush for ethanol number at 2:00pm CST today. Estimates are around 470 million bushels, which would be slightly below the previous month but almost 30 million bushels above the previous year.
  • Spreads: H/K 6.5¢ carry, K/N 7¢ carry and N/Z 12.5¢ carry.

 Outlook: Higher taking direction from soybeans and getting support from first-of-the-month trade flow.

Oilseeds

  • After today’s close the USDA will report their January soybean crush number. Crush is estimated at 171.5 million bushels.
  • Deliveries for the soy complex are as follows: 253 soymeal, 844 soyoil, and 565 soybeans.
  • South America is expected to be back in the market tomorrow as they round out Carnival. There is the potential to see a noteworthy amount of farmer selling as they come back to market.
  • Spreads: H/K 10.5¢ carry, K/N 8.5¢ carry and N/X 27.5¢ inverse.

Outlook: Higher on “new month/new money” feel to soybeans today.

Wheat

  • Egypt bought a total of 535tmt of wheat yesterday: 120tmt Romanian, 235tmt Russian, 120tmt French, and 60tmt Ukrainian. This is Egypt’s largest wheat purchase since 2014.
  • Ukraine has exported 29.4MMT of grain as of March 1st says their Ag Ministry. Of the 29.4MMT, 13.6MMt was wheat (+15% YOY), 11MMT was corn (unchanged YOY), and 4.7MMT was barley (+18% YOY).
  • There were 719 Chicago wheat deliveries. Kansas City had 142. There were no Minneapolis deliveries.
  • Japan bought 85.4tmt of US wheat and 27.8tmt of Australian wheat.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 9¢ carry, Kansas City H/K 12.25¢ carry and Chicago H/K 19.5¢ carry.

Outlook: Higher on dry and windy forecasts for HRW growing areas.