Morning Highlights with Exports


Highlights

  • The next USDA supply and demand report is on March 9th, 2017, one week from today.
  • The US dollar continues to rally off President Trump’s speech to Congress. At last look the nearby contract was up 0.270 at 102.050.
  • The energy markets were mostly weaker overnight with the nearby crude oil trading down $0.83 at $53.00/barrel.

    Corn

  • USDA export sales were reported at 692,400 tmt for 16/17 and 20,700 tons for 17/18 compared to estimates of 700-900 tmt and 150-350 tmt respectively.
  • Yesterday’s USDA crush report showed a corn crush for ethanol of 476.3 million bushels, compared to an estimate of 470 million bushels.
  • There were 118 contracts of corn deliveries with a next trade date of August 31, 2016.
  • The European Commission raised their corn production estimate 10.3% to 66.6 mmt.  
  • Zimbabwe is now budgeting for $140 million to purchase corn from their farmers for its strategic reserves.
  • Spreads: K/N 7 cent carry, U/Z 6 cent carry, Z/H 8 cent carry.

    Outlook: Weaker on corrective trade and export sales that were below estimates.

    Oilseeds

  • The USDA soybean export sales were seen at 427,700 tons for 16/17 and 0 tons for 17/18 with estimates of 300-500 tmt 16/17 and 0-200 tmt 17/18. Soymeal sales were seen at 139,500 tons for 16/17 compared to estimates of 125-300 tmt. Soyoil sales were seen at 28,700 tons with estimates of 5-30 tmt.
  • Yesterday, the USDA crush report revealed a soybean crush of 170.6 million bushels compared to an estimated 169.3 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were seen at 2.086 billion pounds versus an estimate of 2.051 billion pounds.
  • The traffic backup on Brazilian highway BR-163 is continuing to be an issue. An estimated 3,000 trucks hauling soybeans are blocked by swamps created by heavy rainfalls. Grain traders are losing up to $400,000 a day without the trucks moving.
  • There were deliveries in the soy complex overnight: 561 contracts of soybeans next date of February 24th, 253 contracts of soybean meal next date of February 21st, and 594 contracts of soybean oil next trade date of March 1st.
  • Malaysian palm oil continued to rally overnight and was up 31 to 2,862 ringgits; for the week, palm oil is up 56 ringgits.
  • Spreads: K/N 8 ¼ cent carry, N/X 28 ¼ cent inverse, X/F 4 cent carry.

    Outlook: Looking to trade lower on underwhelming export sales figures and profit taking.

    Wheat

  • The USDA export sales were reported at 353,200 tons for 16/17 and 98,800 tons for 17/18 compared to estimates of 300-500 tmt and 100-300 tmt respectively.
  • An Israeli importer is pushing their tender for corn, wheat, and barley back to next week.
  • The European Commission raised their wheat production estimate 6.5% to 143 mmt. They are also estimating soft wheat exports at 28.9 mmt and soft wheat ending stocks at 10.2 mmt.
  • There were 790 contracts of Chicago wheat deliveries with a next trade date of March 1st, and 6 contracts of KC wheat deliveries with a next trade date of February 22nd. There were no deliveries in Mpls.
  • Spreads: K/N Chicago 13 ¼ cent carry, KC 11 ¼ cent carry, Mpls 5 ¼ cent carry.

Outlook: Wheat could find some spill over selling pressure from row crops, despite ok export numbers.