Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • USDA March S&D report is this Thursday Mar 9.
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled Friday that the Fed will likely raise interest rates later this month, reflecting a firmer job market and inflation edging toward the 2 percent target level.
  • Corn, bean, and wheat markets closed mostly unchanged last Friday, after slight weakness starting out and a weaker US dollar, prices lifted into the close in quiet trade.
  • Over the weekend USDA and APHIS confirmed a case of H7 bird flu in a Tennessee poultry breeding flock. The site will be quarantined and the flock destroyed. This is the first US case in over a year.
  • The US dollar index +.100 @ 101.640 , crude oil futures -.34 @ $52.98 , DOW equity futures -23 @ 20,957.

Corn 

  • Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds net long 70,000 contracts, down from 81k the previous week.The index net long position was steady at +386,000.
  • On Friday, CZ closed at $3.99 ¼ just slightly above the 100 week moving average at $3.98 on the weekly chart.
  • South African corn [white & yellow maize] production initial crop estimate was pegged at 13.92 mil tons, up 78% from last year’s drought plagued crop.
  • Second-crop corn [safrinha] planting in Brazil is estimated at 92% complete, ahead of last year at 79%.

 

Outlook: corn is holding steady in overnight trade, and the charts are lending mild technical support as Dec17 is perched right above $4.00 to start the week.  Calls: steady/better

Oilseeds

  • Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds net long 102,000 contracts, down from 130k the previous week. The index net long position was +158,000.
  • Bean harvest in Mato Grosso is estimated at 78% complete versus 65% last year.Brazil nationally is estimated at 40% done.Bean yields continue to impress the local Brazilian trade.
  • There were general rains over 80% of Brazil’s growing areas over the weekend.
  • Argentine port workers at Rosario initiated a 24 hour strike on Monday.

 

Outlook: South American weather was a bit wetter over the weekend, but likely we’re seeing follow through from the firmer close last Friday. Spec funds did drop a fair amount of the spec length, so perhaps a little room for buying.  Calls: 4-6 cents higher

 Wheat

  • Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds net -81,000 contracts, from a previous short of -47k.The index net long position was +129,000.KC spec net long up slightly to +29,500 contracts.Spec funds are estimated long 10.000 contracts in Minneapolis.
  • Also on Friday, KWN closed at $4.83 ¼ just above its 50 week moving average at $4.81 ½ . In overnight trade, WN gapped higher, trading above its 100 day moving average [$4.71].
  • 121 MWH contracts were delivered Friday after the close, stopped by LDC.
  • Turkey will tender this week for EU milling wheat. The Philippines will tender for feed wheat this week, and US cash traders were hinting that China was in the market for small amounts of US wheat.
  • Russian officials said they may have to move up to 500k tons of wheat out of the 4.0 mil tons strategic government reserves in an effort to make space for the upcoming harvest this summer.

Outlook:  Chicago and KC wheat both gapped higher on Sunday night’s open. We’re into March and the dryness across the winter wheat areas will garner talk each day as moisture will be needed. Warmer temperatures will prevail over the Midwest this week. The market acts like some business may have been done over the weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see. Calls: 3-5 cents better to start