Highlights

  • USDA March S&D report is this Thursday Mar 9.
  • Dairy producers are calling for a crackdown on the almond, soy and rice "milks"they say are masquerading as the real thing and cloud the meaning of milk.
  • May cotton futures were up 1.4% Monday, closing at 79.11 cents/lbs, the highest since June of 2014.
  • The US dollar index is up .080 @ 101.79, crude oil futures +.20 @ $53.41, DOW equity futures -21 @ 20,936.

Corn 

  • USDA weekly corn export inspections totaled 56.8 mil bushels, steady with last week’s amount.Milo inspections were only 2.1 mil bushels.
  • South Korea said it would ban US poultry imports after the Tennessee bird flu story. Several flocks within a 7 mile radius of the original outbreak were placed under quarantine by APHIS.
  • Analysts’ average trade guess for Thursday’s corn carryout is 2.317 bil bu [last month USDA 2.320 bil].

 

Outlook: news was mostly scarce yesterday and corn sagged lower for the duration of the day session. Calls: sideways/lower

Oilseeds

  • USDA weekly soybean export inspections totaled 33.8 mil bushels. This was slightly better than the previous week.
  • Local forecasts for major Brazil growing areas into the weekend show a dryer pattern the next 5 days, however Argentina may trend wetter into the weekend.
  • Road conditions for Brazil’s major bean truck transport system were said to be improved, and movement of trucks to export locations is getting better.
  • Analysts’ average trade guess for Thursday’s bean carryout is 418 mil bu [last month USDA at 420 mil]. USDA has left the bean carryout unchanged in Feb and Jan, so some feel there is likely a possible increase in exports yet of 10-20 mil bushels, lowering US ending stocks at some point.

Outlook: yesterday beans rallied twice during the day, but each time succumbed to pull-backs. It’s tough to rally beans into a larger Brazilian crop coming.  Calls: 2-3 cents lower.

 Wheat

  • USDA weekly all wheat export inspections totaled 19.6 mil bushels.US wheat exports are up 27% from last year at this time, but remain in line to make USDA’s export forecast. There is some speculation that the large amount of unshipped sales under ‘unknown’ category [2.551 mil tons] may not all get executed, but this will be debated as we get closer to June 1. There remains a large back-log of vessels to load off the PNW.
  • Cash export basis for US wheat was said to be lower this week, as rail logistics improved and delivered bids have backed off 5-10 cents for front end positions.
  • WN17 opened, traded, and closed [$4.73] above its 200 day moving average [$4.71] on Monday.
  • The MWK/KWK spread has backed off to +.68 prem Minn, from a high of +1.20 in December. The March spreads peaked at +1.30 several times during Dec and Jan.
  • There were another 91 Chicago SRW certs cancelled Monday, bringing the total cancelled for loadout to 402 receipts out of Toledo so far, leaving 475 open.
  • ABARE put out their first Australian wheat crop estimate for 2017/18, dropping the production to 23.98 mil tons, off 30% from this last year’s huge 35 mil ton crop as production returns to more normal/average yields.
  • State HRW ratings out yesterday showed KS 43% G/E, unchanged; with OK 43% and TX 34% G/E. There were high wind advisories across Colorado and Kansas yesterday.

Outlook:  a tale of two markets, as Chicago and KC tried to rally, while Minneapolis and corn retreated. Chicago support held firm all day on structural and technical considerations. With WK closing +.05 and MWK -.05 ½ yesterday, we may see some correction on Tuesday. European wheat futures were mostly lower on a better moisture outlook. Calls: 1-3 cents lower.