Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Happy First Day of Spring
  • Let the production focus change to U.S. Agriculture
  • And a reminder of the logistics needed to redistribute this year’s production
  • As of 7am CT The US Dollar is unchanged at 100.310, gold is up $3.70 / oz at $1233.50 / oz and, crude oil is  

Corn

  • A major change in the managed funds opinion of the corn market; they sold over 100 thousand contracts of corn last week to reverse their position from long to short 24k(as of Tuesday).
  • CZ17 & CK17 both closed Friday over the 100 day moving average. This should help prices rise in conjunction with the large spec position change reported on Friday.
  • Recent wet pattern is helping Eastern Nebraska, Kansas and SW Illinois(dry areas).
  • Brazil forecasting a corn crop of 98 mmt vs the USDA at 91 mmt currently.
  • Farmer selling slow and reluctant unless futures rally to roughly $3.80. But the calendar and warm weather may make a difference.

Call: Higher

Beans

  • Rumors of Argentine Grain Union suggesting that April 6th be the first one day strike. Not a new technique or strategy.
  • COT(commitment of traders) report Friday showed at bullish reduction by the spec by selling 24k of the long paper to a net long of 98k. We are seeing a change of attitude by investors in the ag sector, where as they are less bullish or even getting short (corn and wheat).
  • Brazil reporting Soybean harvest at 63% complete vs an average of 55%.
  • Old crop soybean stocks appear to be in commercial hands more than normal and delivery economics are far from threatening registered stocks.

Call: Flat to higher

Wheat:

  • Managed funds (specs) continue to sell the wheat market, adding 37k new short positions. Making them net short over 100 thousand contracts short.
  • That's 500 million bushel.
  • SW plains in the US continues to look drier than normal. This and new spec shorts reported should support at rally today.

Call: Higher