Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • September options expire Friday after the close. FND for September futures is Aug 31st.
  • Energy markets are mostly weaker. The US$ and the CD$ are weaker and gold is stronger.
  • Corn/soybean scouts will be traveling in and around Illinois and Iowa today.  IL results to be released this evening.

Corn

  • The corn market traded slightly higher in modest volume, with a 1-2 cent trading range.
  • The December contract trades 2-3 cents above its contract low of $3.58 ½.
  • U/Z 13 ¾-14 cent carry.... Z/H 12 ¼-12 ½ carry, 70% of full carry. Full carry is at 18 cents.
  • Day 2 of the corn/soybean tour; IN averaged 171.23 compared to the 3-day average of 167.13 and NE averaged 165.42 compared to 162.51.

Outlook: quiet trade on lack of fresh supportive news

Soybeans

  • The soybean market traded higher on demand and spillover strength in the soyoil market. Soyoil is up 73 points this morning.
  • November palm oil closed at $2738 ringgits, up 1 ringgit. China beans were up 5 overnight.
  • Day 2 of the crop tour pegs IN bean pods at an average of 1,168.78 in IN and 1,131.02 in NE.  This compares to the 3-day average of 1,164.09 for IN and 1,182.12 for NE.
  • Spreads; X/F 8 ¼ carry, X/N 30 ¾ carry, F/H 8 ½ carry. Pretty quiet on this front.

Outlook: higher trade

Wheat

  • The wheat market struggles with an overwhelming supply of wheat in the world. The US SRW stocks to use ratio is at 76.9% and the HRW stocks to use ratio is at 50.1%.
  • KC and Chicago continue to get hit hard, making new contract lows the past few days. The KC July uncovered a new contract low of $4.84 ¼ yesterday.
  • Some counties in Kansas were said to have reached prices below government loan price at $2.94 per bushel.
  • Spring wheat harvest rumbles along, with anticipation of seeing some quality issues as rain events move across ND.  Should be a good week for harvest activity this week.
  • Nice carries developing in Mpls and decent carries continue in KC and Chicago. Mpls premium over KC and Chicago is at $2.28-$2.32 in the December.

Outlook: slight recovery on ideas of being oversold