Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Weekly export sales report out this morning at 730 am CDT.
  • September option expiry tomorrow at the close.
  • Energy markets are mixed with crude oil slightly lower.
  • US$ and CD$ are stronger, gold is weaker.

Corn

  • The corn market traded slightly higher in a very narrow trading range. While the corn market has lost some ground this week there is the potential for more losses with the 2017-18 carryout forecast at 2.3 billion bushels.
  • Last year Sep corn went to $3.01 and Dec corn dipped down to $3.15, with a 2.4 billion bushel carryout. 
  • South Korea bought 60,000 tonnes of corn.
  • Average trade estimate for weekly export sales; 450 tmt-950 tmt.
  • Crop tour day 3; Illinois corn yield pegged at 180.72 compared to 193.50 last year and the average for Iowa is around 188.23 compared to 187.11 last year.
  • Spreads; U/Z 13 ¾-14 cents carry, Z/H 12 ¼-12 ¾ cents carry, Z/N 24 ¾-25 cents carryout.

Outlook: Choppy trade with more downside possible

Soybeans

  • The soybean market traded higher on strength in soyoil, palm oil and expectations for another solid week of export sales.
  • November palm oil closed 39 higher at 2,777 ringgits with resistance near 2,800 ringgits. The strength comes from slower production than expected, technical buying and a bit of short covering.
  • Iran looks to purchase 200,000 tonnes of soymeal.
  • China soybeans were down 7 cents overnight.
  • Average trade estimate for weekly export sales; 650 tmt -1.5 mmt for beans, 75 tmt-250 tmt for meal and 8 tmt-40 tmt for soyoil.
  • Day 3 crop tour finds 1,230.77 pod counts for Illinois, compared to the three year average of 1,269.24.

Outlook: Sideways trade, decent demand and plentiful supplies 

Wheat

  • The wheat market bounced higher overnight on oversold ideas and lack of country movement.
  • Weekly export sales estimate; 300 tmt-600 tmt.
  • SovEcon pegs the Russian wheat crop at 78.9 mmt. Does not seem like there is a top on this crop.
  • Japan bought 98.574 mmt of US wheat ant 35.217 mmt of Canadian wheat. No Australian wheat was noted in this round.
  • Tunisia looks to purchase 167,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
  • Jordan bought 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
  • Iraq buys US and Australian wheat (50,000 tonnes from each). 

Outlook: higher on oversold ideas, lack of selling and emerging demand