Morning Wire


Highlights

  • Hurricane Irma tracking was trending more toward the east coast of Florida in forecast updates.
  • USDA weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.
  • USDA’s Sept S&D report will be out next Tuesday Sept 12th.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer announced he will resign his position next month. His term was set to expire next June.
  • Higher Canadian interest rates have helped push the Canadian dollar to a 26 month high versus the US dollar.
  • The US House passed a $7.9 bil hurricane relief bill, which will now go to the US Senate for vote.
  • The Midwest should remain mostly dry the remainder of this week.
  • The US dollar index is -.416 @ 91.803, crude oil futures -.12 @ $49.04, DOW index futures are -10 @ 21,802 .

Corn 

  • Ethanol production will delayed until today due to the Monday holiday.
  • US Census data show DDG exports for July at 1,004 mil tons, up from 889k in June. July ethanol exports were 116.7 mil gal, vs 92.7 mil in June.
  • Cooler night-time lows are still being watched across the upper Midwest this week.

 

Outlook: another decent export sale to Mexico announced yesterday helped corn see slightly positive gains. Corn is also holding mild technical support from the charts and a moderately leaning spec short position. CZ17 pushed right up to the 20 day moving avg [$3.62] towards the close, but was unable to breach that level. Likely two-sided trade the rest of the week. Calls: steady to -.01

Oilseeds

  • Brazilian firm Abiove forecast next year’s Brazil bean crop at 108.5 mil tons, down 4.6% from this past year, while CONAB’s first production idea came in at 107 mil.  Bean planting will start up in Mato Grosso at the end of Sept.

Outlook: after a slightly lower correction beans returned to the upside move. SX17 found support above the 50 day moving avg [$9.72], however it drifted a bit into the close off .05 ½ cents from the highs. But overnight trade has it right back to the highs this week, as some will target the 200 day moving avg [$9.82]. With harvest right around the corner, it’s hard to see it getting much better, especially if $9.00 cash bids to the farmer start showing up.  Calls: 4-5 better to start

 Wheat

  • Australian wheat futures have been higher this week, notably on lack of moisture and some worries of frost damage further eroding production potential.
  • Weekly total HRW deliverable stocks report showed 121.0 mil bushels [KC, Hutch, Salina, Wichita], vs 110.04 mil last year.  Chicago wheat deliverable stocks showed 89.0 mil bushels [vs 89.5 mil LY]. 7.4 mil bushels show up as ‘non-deliverable grade’.  HRS stocks show Minn 3.7 mil bu, with Duluth at 19.0 mil [+1.5 mil on the week].
  • KC HRW spot basis again firmer yesterday; ords @ +5Z, 11% @+55Z, 12% +4 @ +130Z, 13% @ +220Z.  The mid-11% pro through 12.6% pro were up +3 to +19 cents.
  • The 142 Chicago Sept deliveries yesterday were as #2HRW.

 

Outlook:  Chicago Dec quietly squeezed out an outside higher day, trading above the 20 day moving avg [$4.44] and closed just above that level. MWZ closed up +.15 ½ for the headline leader yesterday, perhaps resulting from Canadian interest rate increase and the firmness in the Canadian dollar vs the US $. Plus HRS harvest should wrap up going into this weekend. Russian wheat prices were said to be firmer this week. Calls: steady/mixed, Minny +.05