Morning Wire


Highlights

  • Hurricane Irma back to a Cat 4 now, but path looks to be Miami and southern Florida, then S. Carolina by Monday.
  • The US Senate tacked on another $7 bil to the House’s hurricane aid package, upping it to $15.25 bil.
  • USDA’s Sept S&D report will be out next Tuesday Sept 12th.
  • The US dollar index is -.428 @ 91.111, crude oil futures -.21 @ $48.89, DOW index futures are -78 @ 21,728.

Corn 

  • Weekly US ethanol production came in up 18k to 1,060k barrels per day. This is the second highest weekly production level since data was collected.  Ethanol stocks decreased by .2 mb to 21.1 mil barrels.
  • Front end corn basis levels remain weak, as US corn export commitments are at the lowest levels in the past 10 years going into harvest.  Sept CIF called +19CZ while Oct bid +30CZ and Nov +35Z.
  • USDA weekly export sales for corn totaled 1.480 mil tons, with milo sales at 57k tons

 

Outlook: corn stumbled again, and perhaps this time on weaker cash export basis. CZ17 failed to breach the 20 day moving avg [$3.60] the next level of resistance, and sellers predominated. Calls: steady to +.01

Oilseeds

  • Argentina will likely regain EU biodiesel markets, as the anti-dumping duties drop at the end of Sept. The duties had been from 22-25%. Argentina had challenged the duties with the WTO that were put in place back in 2013.
  • China imported a 8.45 mil tons of beans in August, up 10% from year ago levels according to customs data.
  • USDA weekly export sales came in at 1.523 mil tons.

Outlook: SX17 again tested the levels above the 50 day moving avg [$9.73] but failed to hold any higher trade.  It was still defined by ‘two-sided’ trade. Likely the trade will be satisfied to hold steady going into next week’s report, and sellers may be leery of larger export sales showing up from last week. Calls: 2-3 better

 Wheat

  • USDA weekly export sales all wheat were 375k tons.
  • The Russian government may consider a scheme to subsidize internal rail transport to export markets.  SovEcon raised their Russian wheat crop estimate to 81.1 mil tons.
  • CCC announced a HRW donation tender to Ethiopia for about 100k tons in two shipments [LH Oct and mid-Dec]. Offers due 9/13.
  • Algeria bought 250k tons of durum wheat in their tender this week. Likely Mexican and Canadian origin.
  • KC HRW spot basis firmer again yesterday, generally +10 to +20 higher.  Spot 14% pro was up +46 to +276Z on a small lot [7 cars] spot trade out of western KS.  However, there were 140+ HRS spot cars available in Minny cash market, with basis steady at best. Lower protein Canadian origin wheat has been bleeding into the US storage markets trying to find homes.

Outlook:  it seemed like the only thing happening in the wheat complex was a few traders taking on Minny vs KC or Chi.  The world has plenty of lower protein milling wheat, but still worries persist for tighter protein supplies.  Calls: mixed