Morning Wire


Highlights

  • After making landfall over Florida yesterday, hurricane Irma is now a category 1 hurricane. Overall, it seems the storm is weakening faster than first anticipated.
  • The US dollar is firmer this morning, trading up 0.217 points at 91.569.
  • The DJIA is up 13.01 points at 21797.79.
  • Crude oil is higher this morning, up $0.22 in the October contract at $47.72 per barrel.
  • October RBOB Gasoline is down $0.0025 at $1.6226.
  • The September USDA WASDE report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CST. 

Corn

  • Corn is trading lower in a narrow overnight trade range as traders adjust positions ahead of the September supply and demand report.
  • According to a Bloomberg survey, the average trade expectation for corn yield will be around 167.9 bu/acre compared to the August report’s 169.5 predicted yield. Some traders still believe lower yields could be ahead in the October report.
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders showed Managed money at a net short in the corn market.
  • A group of private buyers from Israel issued a tender to buy up to 90,000 tons of corn today. The tender will close on Wednesday.
  • The weekly crop progress report will be released at 3:00pm CST today. Private analysts predict a 1% drop in the corn crop’s good/excellent rating to 60% G/E. This week we will likely see the first “Corn Harvested” statistic of the season, which analysts predict to come in at 2%.

Outlook: Continued sideways trade ahead of tomorrow’s supply and demand report. 

Soybeans

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money increasing bullish bets in soybean oil while leaving their overall position in meal unchanged. In soybean futures, the fund’s net short position eased a little.
  • According to a Bloomberg survey, average trade guesses for soybean yield come in at 48.7 bu/acre vs the August report’s predicted 49.4 bu/acre.
  • The weekly crop progress report will be released at 3:00pm CST today. Private analysts predict a 1% drop in the soy crop’s good/excellent rating to 60% G/E.

Outlook: Choppy trade ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report as trader positioning continues. 

Wheat

  • Wheat is trading lower in the overnight session as growing supplies in the Black Sea region weigh on the market ahead of the WASDE report. Upward revisions to the Russian crop continue to come in while Russian exports have risen by 7% yoy for this season.
  • Limiting a large drop in wheat prices is continued news of weather issues in Australia and Argentina and continued strong global demand for high quality wheat.
  • A warmer weather outlook with a lack of precipitation over the next week could increase drought conditions in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Outlook: Moderately lower as ample global supplies continue to weigh on the market.