Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • The 6-10 day forecast indicates a warmer and drier weather pattern for much of the United States. If this weather model holds, the likelihood of an early frost is slight.
  • The US dollar is firmer this morning, trading up 0.109 points at 91.984.
  • The DJIA is up 259 points at 22057.
  • Crude oil is higher this morning, up $0.29 with the October contract at $48.36 per barrel.
  • October RBOB Gasoline is up $0.0014 at $1.6485.
  • The September USDA WASDE report will be released today at 11:00 AM CDT. 

Corn

  • Corn is trading slightly lower in a 3 cent range on the overnight session as traders sit idle awaiting the latest update on supply and demand from the USDA.  
  • In yesterday’s crop progress report, the USDA indicated the corn conditions were unchanged from a week prior. However, most notable is the fact that corn maturity is lagging behind the five year average. In Iowa, the largest corn producing state in the US, only 15% of crop is matured vs. the 5-year average of 28%.  
  • Many traders continue to show disbelief in the printed yield numbers of past WASDE reports, but it should be noted that today’s report draws its yield data from survey’s taken in the last half of August when crop conditions improved from the latter part of July and first half of August.

Outlook: Slightly lower ahead of the WASDE report on pre-report positioning.

Soybeans

  • Soybean trade is light on the overnight session, trading down by less than a penny as trade awaits the next big headline from the WASDE report.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report indicated a 1% decline in the soybean crop’s good/excellent ratings. Soybeans dropping leaves came in at 22%, 3% below the 5 year average.
  • Analysts continue to look for lower yields and a trimmed US carryout in today’s report. Carryout estimates range from 375-524 million bushels with an average trade estimate of 444 million bushels.
  • However, lower yields could be less likely for soybeans as August of 2017 was the third coolest in the last 3 decades while precipitation remained at or slightly above the long term average.

Outlook: Slightly lower ahead of the WASDE report on pre-report positioning.

Wheat

  • The wheat markets are hovering around unchanged overnight ahead of today’s supply and demand report as there is very little news to sway price direction.
  • Canadian wheat yields are coming in better than expected despite dry conditions in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
  • US winter wheat plantings are 5% complete which is in line with trade expectations and at the same pace as last year.
  • Australia cut its 2017/18 wheat forecast to an 8 year low yesterday as dry weather paired with frost is prohibiting robust yields. The current production estimate has been set at 21.64 million metric tons, down almost 10% from the March forecast of 23.98mmt.

Outlook: Choppy trade as the market awaits the WASDE report for its next price direction.