Morning Highlight


Highlights

  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar down .142 at 92.212, Crude Oil up $.36 at $63.93, Dow up 35 at 25386 and Gold up $1.10 at $1320.40.
  • Markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday for Martin Luther King holiday.  Following a regular close this Friday, the grain markets will not re-open until Monday night, January 15th, at 7:00pm CT.  CHS Hedging will have an intern available on Monday for order placement from 8:00am to Noon and 4:00pm to 9:00pm CT at 800-328-6530.
  • Tomorrow, Friday, January 12th, NASS will release their Crop Production Annual Summary report, December 1st Quarterly Stocks report and the Winter Wheat Seedings report at 11:00am CT.  Click here for a Convenience Table .

Corn

  • Corn exports were 437.7tmt vs. estimates of 350-750tmt in today’s weekly export sales report.
  • CONAB estimated Brazil’s corn crop at 92.3mmt, up .1mmt from last month.  Of that number, first crop corn was 25.2mmt and second crop (Safrinha) was 67.2mmt (rounded).
  • Rosario exchange estimated Argentina’s corn crop at 39.9mmt, down 1.6mmt from their last month’s estimate. 
  • Weekly ethanol production dropped 36k bbl/day last week to 996k bbl/day.  Ethanol stocks increased 100k bbl to 22.719 mil bbl. 

Outlook:  No news sufficient to move corn out of its sideways chop likely means another day of it.

Soybeans

  • Soybean exports were 616.4tmt vs. estimates of 500-950tmt, soymeal were 226.9tmt vs. estimates of 75-250tmt and soyoil were -1.6tmt vs. estimates of 8-22tmt.
  • CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 110.4mmt, up 1.2mmt from last month.  AgRural estimate of Brazil’s bean production is 114mmt, up 1.1mmt from last month due to an acreage increase.
  • Rosario exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean crop at 52mmt, down 2.5mmt from last month due to drought conditions.
  • USDA announced yesterday morning a sale of 260tmt soybeans to Unknown.  65tmt was for 2017/2018 and 195tmt was for 2018/2019.
  • There were 276 January soybean deliveries yesterday afternoon; 27 soymeal and 28 soyoil deliveries as well.

Outlook: Open interest in soybeans was up over 19k contracts on yesterday’s sharp sell-off, implying new sellers coming in ahead of the report.

Wheat

  • Wheat export sales were 71.5tmt vs. estimates of 250-450tmt.  This is a new marketing year low.
  • Japan bought 91tmt wheat from the U.S. and Canada in their weekly tender.
  • Some much needed precipitation is occurring in parts of Kansas, but whether total amounts are significant remains to be seen.

Outlook: Momentum is slowing on the recent wheat rally and needs to find a boost from supportive news to avoid a pullback.