Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • Reports indicated that Brazil could increase 106 million acres into agricultural land. This could increase a larger carryout on many commodities and lower agricultural prices long-term if Brazil does go forth with this plan.
  • As of 2:30pm, the U.S. $ is down 9 pts. at 97.05, the Argentine Peso is up 0.31% at 37.44 and the Brazil Real rose 0.41% at 3.86.
  • The EIA Energy Stocks report will come out tomorrow at 10:00am CST.
  • The Export Sales report is delayed to Friday at 7:30am CST.

Corn

  • The corn market fell slightly on little news or movement on the day.
  • An EU analyst increased the corn import estimate for 18/19 to 18.5 mmt, up 2.2 mmt. The EU corn production estimates are 60.5-62.9 mmt for 18/19.
  • March corn was rangebound at $3.82¾ to $3.86¾, remaining above the 100-day moving average of $3.79¼.
  • March corn closed down ½c at $3.84¼, July closed down ¾c at $3.97½ and December 2019 closed down ½c at $4.02¼.
  • Spreads: H/K 7¼c carry, H/N 13½c carry, H/Z 18¼c carry. 

Oilseeds

  • Soybean prices trickled slightly higher as the U.S. awaits concrete news on trade relations with China.
  • Argentina is expected to get little moisture for the remainder of the week but calls for chances of favorable rains starting the middle of next week. Brazil continues to maintain frequent rains this week in the Mato Grosso region.
  • January soybeans pull further above the 50-day moving average of $8.78¾, while the next level of resistance is $923¾.
  • January soybeans closed up 1¾c at $9.13½, July closed up 1½c at $9.50¼ and November 2019 closed up 1c at $9.56¾.
  • Spreads: F/H 12¼c carry, F/K 24¾c carry, F/N 36½c carry, F/X 43¼c carry. 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded lower as Egypt news unfolds. GASC did not issue letters of credit on wheat cargoes.
  • The EU 2018 soft wheat production estimates range at 128.6-129.2 mmt.
  • December March Chicago failed to trade above the 50-day moving average of $5.23½. March Minneapolis gapped further from the 50-day moving average of $5.86¾, down 11 ¾ from this level. March KC wheat broke back below $5.00, 15¾c away from breaking contract lows.
  • March Chicago wheat fell 4½c at $5.18, Minneapolis March wheat decreased 4¼c at $5.75½, and Kansas March wheat settled 7¼c lower at $4.98.
  • Spreads: MWE H/K 4¼c carry, KW H/K 11¾c carry, W H/K 5c carry. 

Livestock

  • China reported three new cases of the swine virus, each outbreak in a different province. These outbreaks were found in Beijing (north-eastern part), Shaanxi (central part) and Sichuan (southwest of Shaanxi).
  • Hog prices fell on the nearby and rose on the deferred months. December hogs were unable to hold above the 200-day moving average of $56.74. The next level of support is the 100-day moving average of $54.21.
  • Pork bellies increased $5.57 to $126.55/cwt. Carcass and picnic ham’s rose in the morning report to $72.50 and $50.34/cwt, respectively, on 218 loads. Pork margins rose $4.25 to $38.05.
  • December lean hogs fell $1.02½ to $55.85 and February increased $1.70 to $67.75.
  • Live and feeder cattle saw some strength in the markets. Nearby live cattle broke through $118 for the first time since October 29th. January feeders rose for the first time in eight sessions. Nearby feeders remained $1.56½ below the 200-day moving average.
  • The USDA morning boxed beef highlights showed choice cutouts fell 12c to $213.74/cwt, while selects decreased 43c to $197.08/cwt. Beef margins increased 35c to $134.40.
  • December live cattle closed up 52½c at $118.30, while January feeder cattle closed up $1.07½ at $145.47½.
  • Today’s estimated hog and cattle slaughter are 477,000 and 120,000 respectively. This week’s estimated total hog and cattle slaughter are 955,000 and 241,000 respectively.