Afternoon Market Highlights
2/7/2019 3:42:16 PM
Nothing moving in the ag markets, with a winter storm taking over much of the Midwest. Prices moved lower on renewed concerns over the US/Chines trade war. Markets were hit with technical selling across the board.
- Egypt’s GASC tenders for 55-60k tonnes of optional origin wheat for LH Mar shipment.
- The energy markets were weaker all day with crude oil falling below $53/barrel.
- The US$ remains strong at 96.51, up 124. The gold market was slightly higher at $1,312.
- Wall Street is posting losses this afternoon.
The corn market lost some ground today on spillover weakness in the beans and wheat markets. A major winter storm is moving around the Upper Midwest. There have been reports of elevator closings up in the Red River Valley area. Ideas are that the USDA data could be friendly for the corn market.
- Closes: March at $3.76 ½, don 3 ½ cents, July at $3.92 ¼, down 3 ½ cents and December at $4.00 ½, down 2 ¾ cents.
- Over the past 14 years grain stocks as of Dec 1 has ranged from 8.030 bb in 2012 to 12.516 bb in 2017.
- Spreads: H/K 8 carry, K/N 7 ¾ carry, Z/N 19 carry.
The soybean market turned lower on disappointing news over trade talks and improving weather conditions in South America. Prices were lower early in the session but dipped lower on reports that the US and China may not meet again until the March 1 deadline. Fears are that a resolution may be a long ways away.
- Closes: March at $9.13 ½, down 8 ½ cents, July at $9.41, down 8 ¼ cents, November at $9.55 ¼, down 7 ¼ cents.
- Technical selling pressured prices ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data.The March sits at its 20-Day MA of $9.13 ¼. The 50-Day MA is at $9.12 ¼ and the 200-Day MA is at $9.18.
- Over the past 14 years Dec 1 grain stocks have been as low as 1.966 bb in 2012 and as high as 3.157 bb in 2017.
- The canola market was mixed from weakness in the US soy complex and weakness in the CD$.
- Spreads: H/K 14 carry, H/X 41 ¼ carry, X/N 25 ½ carry.
The wheat market got spanked today on technical selling, poor demand, and renewed worries about the ongoing trade war between the US and China. More wicked weather for the Southern Plains area this weekend and next week.
- March closes: Mpls at $5.64 ½, down 8 ¾ cents, KC at $4.96 ¼, down 13 ¾ cents and Chicago at $5.13 ¾, down 12 ¾ cents.
- Mpls March is back to within 20 cents of its contract low and the KC March is only 13 ¾ cents above its contract low.
- Over the past 14 years (2005-2018) winter wheat acres increased 6 times and decreased 11 times from the initial assessment in January to the final number the end of September.
- Over the past 14 years Dec 1 grain stocks for all wheat has been as low as 1.128 bb back in 2007 and as high as 2.073 bb in 2016.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 2 ½ to 3 ¾ carry, Kansas City H/K 5 ½-8 carry and Chicago H/K 2 ¾-4 ½ carry. Mpls gained on KC with a premium of 68 cents over KC in the March.
The cattle market traded higher on spread activity buying cattle and selling hogs. Cash markets are on par with last week, despite hopes that the packers would meet the offers at $126 on a live basis.
- Closes: March feeders at $143.25, up 40 cents, April at $144.87, up 25 cents and August at $150.07, up 60 cents.
- Closes: Feb lives at $126.30, unchanged (FND was the 4th, last trade day is the 28th), April at $126.82, up 2 cents, June at $117.15, up 22 cents.
- Boxes fell short of $217 today in the Choice and Selects were weaker as well.131 loads for the day, which is thought to be good movement. The C/S spread widened out to 5.18.
The hog market was lower on spread activity against the cattle market, weak products and cash markets. China’s struggle with the African Swine Fever continues although they appear to be pretty close lipped about what the real situation is in China and have cut off most all information about anything involving ASF.
- Closes: Feb at 55.27, down 67 cents, April at $59.60, down 1.37 and June at $73.37, down 80 cents.
- IA/MN cash values were reported at $48.63, down 84 cents. WCB cash values were at $49.13, down 30 cents.
- Over 300 loads today and the products were mostly lower (bellies down over six bucks and carcass cutout values remain at some pretty weak levels).