Afternoon Market Highlights
5/17/2019 2:59:08 PM
More worries about the upcoming rain events this weekend and next week. The stir is all about how many acres of corn will not get planted and what happens to that ground (to plant or not to plant). Trade issues circulate between China and the US with uncertainty about continuing negotiations.
- The energy markets turned lower with the crude oil dropping below $63/barrel.
- The US$ is stronger, tickling 98 points while the gold market is on the defensive, down $9-$10.
- The DJIA is down 87 at 25774, S&P down 16 at 2861 and the NASDAQ down 70 at 7827.
- CHS Hedging is offering Grain and Energy Hedging classes and a technical trading class June 25 & June 26. Check out our website for registration and details on the classes.
Corn prices continued their trek to higher ground on planting delays. Big rains are in the mix for the weekend and into next week. The December touched $4 early but failed to hold that level or push through it. We could it push above $4 if the weather forecasts prove true this weekend.
- Closes: July at $3.83 ¼, up 4 ¼ cents, September at $3.90 ½, up 3 ½ cents, December at $3.98 ¼, up 1 ¾ cents. The July gained 32 cents this week ($3.51 ¼-$3.83 ¼), leaving an unfilled gap from $3.60 ¼-$3.57 ¼ back on May 14. The December gained 26 ¼ cents for the week.
- The “Voice of the Tomb” says to sell corn on May 20th.
- Planting progress through Sunday is expected to be 40-50% complete versus 80% on average.
- Planting insurance dates run from May 25-June 5.There is real talk of seeing a discounted yield for every day that corn does not get planted.Analysts assessments and predictions should start to emerge.
- Spreads: N/U 7 ¼, U/Z 7 ¾ carry, Z/H 10 carry, Z/N 20 carry.
The soybean market fell apart on ideas of corn acres shifting to bean acres and increased trade war tensions with China. Chinese soybean purchases look to be non-existent for quite some time.
- Closes: July at $8.21 ¾, down 18 cents, August at $8.28 ¼, down 18 ¼ cents and November at $8.47 ¼, down 17 ½ cents.
- The products were weaker with meal down $7-$8 bucks and oil down 5 points in the July.
- Planting progress for Monday is expected to be near 10-15% complete.
- The canola market traded lower on a bout of profit taking and spillover weakness in the US soy complex. $455.70, the July 50-Day MA is thought to be the trigger point for funds to cover their shorts.
- Alberta is thought to have 28% of their canola planted as of May 14th.This week was a good week for planting.
- Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ carry, Q/X 18 ½ carry, X/F 12 ¼ carry, X/N 42 ½ carry.
The wheat market traded higher early in the session on the coattails of the higher corn market. Prices turned lower on a bout of profit taking but KC and Mpls closed in positive territory. Mpls drew support from slow planting progress and KC drew support from possible quality issues should the rain events come along as predicted for the Southern Plains area.
- Closes: Mpls at $5.27 ¾, up 1 cents, KC at $4.17 ¾, up 1 cents and Chicago at $4.65, down 2 cents.
- Spring wheat planting progress is expected to be near 70-80% complete through Sunday.
- Russia plans to retain their leadership stance in the global wheat export arena with forecasts for wheat exports between 38.0-41.0 mmt.
- Spreads: Mpls Nu/U 9 carry, Kansas City N/U 10 ¾ carry and Chicago N/U 6 ½ carry.