Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • There is a USDA Supply and Demand report out today at 11:00 am central time.
  • US Commerce Secretary Ross says there cannot be a deal made with the Chinese at the G20, but that it could pave the way for further negotiations at a later date.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was up 0.039 to 96.800 points.
  • The Dow Jones mini futures are up 113 points overnight to 26,199.
  • The energy markets moved higher overnight. Nearby crude is up $0.51 to $53.77 per barrel.

    Corn

  • The corn market moved lower in the overnight session as corn planting progress hit the average analyst estimate, and the conditions report came in 5% above the average estimate.
  • The USDA Crop Progress report showed US corn planting at 83% complete as of Sunday night vs the 5-year average of 99% complete. That leaves roughly 15.8 million acres unplanted so far based on the March Intentions report. Corn emerged came in at 62% vs last week’s 46% and the 5-year average of 93%.
  • The first look at corn conditions came in at 59% good/excellent compared to last year’s first look of 77%. Poor to very poor started this year off at only 9%.
  • Analysts are expecting the USDA to drop US corn yield down from 176 bpa to 172.4 bpa in today’s supply and demand report. They are also expecting production to fall to 14.251 billion bushels for 19/20 and the average estimate for 19/20 carryout is seen at 1.917 billion bushels down from 2.485 billion bushels in May. The world carryout is expected to fall 10 mmt to 304.96 mmt.
  • South Korea’s MFG purchased 70,000 tonnes of corn overnight; NOFI purchased another 68,000 tonnes as well.
  • Chinese corn futures were down 1 ½ cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ¼ cent carry, N/Z 19 ¼ cent carry, Z/H 8 ¾ cent carry, Z/N 17 cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to lower off the open as traders await the USDA Supply and Demand report.

    Oilseeds

  • The soybean market was lower overnight as well as planting progress came in well above the average analyst estimates late yesterday.
  • The Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 60% complete compared to last week’s 39% and the 5-year average of 88%. Soybeans emerged were reported at 34% compared to last week’s 19% and the 5-year average of 73%.
  • The average analyst estimate for US soybean yield is at 49 bpa, down from the 49.5 bpa estimated in May. Analysts are looking for 4.123 billion bushels of production, down slightly from May’s 4.15 billion bushels, and a 19/20 carryout of 983 million bushels which is slightly up from May’s 970 million bushels.
  • South Korea’s NOFI also tendered for 60,000 tonnes of soymeal but rejected all offers and made no purchase.
  • Agrural nominally increased their Brazilian soybean production estimate from 115.3 mmt to 115.5 mmt for 18/19.
  • China reported a new case of African swine fever in the Guizhou province.
  • Malaysian palm oil was up 13 ringgits to 2,007 ringgits. Weekly change of down 21 ringgits. Chinese soybean futures were down 3 ½ cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ cent carry, Q/U 7 ¼ cent carry, U/X 13 ¼ cent carry, X/N 43 ¾ cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to lower off the open as we await the USDA report out at 11:00 am.

    Wheat

  • The wheat market moved lower ahead of the USDA report that is expected to confirm our large supply of domestic wheat yet again.
  • The Crop Progress report showed winter wheat headed at 83% vs last week at 76% and the 5-year of 91%. Winter wheat harvest has officially kicked off and was seen at 4% vs the 5-year average of 10%. Conditions were unchanged week over week at 64%.
  • Spring wheat planting is all but wrapped up at 97% complete vs the 5-year average of 99%. Emerged is still slightly behind at 85% vs 5-year of 93%. Conditions deteriorated 2% to 81% good/excellent.
  • Analysts are looking for all wheat production for 19/20 to be down 13 million bushels to 1.883 billion bushels. The average estimate for US carryout is down 23 million bushels to 1.118 billion bushels, and the average world carryout estimate is down 3 mmt to 290 mmt.
  • Japan was in for their weekly food wheat tender this week, but only for 37,293 tonnes of Canadian spring wheat.
  • SovEcon revised their estimate for 2019 wheat production to 82.2 mmt.
  • Spreads: N/U Chicago 3 ¾ cent carry, KC 12 ¾ cent carry, Mpls 8 ½ cent carry.

Outlook: Lower off the open ahead of the USDA report.