Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

Wishing you all a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend!  CHS Hedging offices will be closing at 3 PM today.

I just read about someone killed while cleaning out bins......please be extra careful this time of year, cleaning bins before harvest, go in pairs and be aware of where your partner is at al times.    

  • The Commitment of Traders Report is scheduled for release on Monday because of the 4th of July Holiday this week.
  • Weekly crop conditions are scheduled for release Monday afternoon at 3 PM CDT.
  • The next USDA S&D report is scheduled for July 11 at 11 AM CDT.
  • Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil trading back over $57/barrel.
  • US$ up 519 at 97.28, gold down 20 bucks at $1,400/ounce, and the CD$ is down 0.00335 at 0.7620.
  • DJIA down 29 at 26936, S&P down 3 at 2996 and the NASDAQ is down 7 at 8162. 

Corn

Corn prices were down hard following Wednesday’s rally.  Prices clawed their way back as the day wore on. The September 19 through July 20 contracts closed on a positive note to finish out the week. 

  • Closes: September at $4.38 ¾, up 2 cents, December at $4.42 ¼, up 1 cent and July at $4.55 ¾, up ¾ cent.
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 332 tmt with the US still at a 10-15 dollar premium to South America or Ukraine.
  • Old crop stocks are expected to see an increase based on reductions in feed usage and exports.Ethanol usage is expected to be unchanged.
  • New crop stocks are expected to increase, providing the USDA uses their June 28 acreage number of 91.4 million acres planted. Exports could be on the high side with expectations that the July report might be too early to make a reduction for 2019/20.
  • Spreads: a bit narrower with the U/Z at a 3 centcarry, Z/H at a 6 ¾ cent carry, Z/N 13 carry and N20/Z20 at a 37 ¼ cent inverse.

Oilseeds

The soy complex traded lower on a bout of profit taking after Wednesday’s rally, in modest volume. Improving weather conditions and ample supplies of soybeans provided additional pressure.  The focus is expected to be on Monday’s crop conditions and Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report. 

  • Closes: August at $8.76, down 13 ½ cents, November at $8.94 ½, down 14 ¼ cents and July at $9.33, down 13 cents. The products were weaker with meal down 2-3 bucks and oil down 61 points.
  • Weekly export sales were good although over 600 tmt went to China, which was already know from the sales announcement that was reported earlier.
  • Weather this and next week is expected to be beneficial for the newly planted soybean crop.
  • Alberta’s canola crop conditions are estimated at 71% G/E from recent rain events.
  • Old crop stocks could be near unchanged based on uncertainty about Chines activity during July and August. Sep 1 starts a new marketing year, where unshipped old crop stocks get rolled into the new marketing year.
  • New crop stocks could be on the lighter side from the lower production number posted in the USDA’s June Acreage update.The planted acreage number could see an increase in August as soybeans were still being planted the last week of June.
  • Spreads: Q/X 18 ¼ carry, X/F 11 ¾ carry, X/N 38 ½ carry.

CHS soybeans on the deck  7.5.19

 

Wheat

Wheat prices were weaker on ample supplies and lack of decent demand.  The US$ was stronger, which is said to play a significant part as to how competitively priced the US is in the world market. Mpls finished the week on the defensive from beneficial rains across the Northern Plains, while KC and Chicago finished stronger on a bout of technical buying and a strength in the corn market. The Southern Plains got rain showers over the 4th of July, which has hampered harvest activity in parts of Kansas. 

  • July closes: Mpls at $5.33 ¼, down 6 ¼ cents, KC at $4.46 ¾, up 3 cents and Chicago at $5.15, up 1 cent.
  • Hearing yield reports are starting to come down from the 30-90 bpa that was being reported earlier this week and late last week.
  • Alberta’s wheat crop is estimated at 73% G/E on last week’s rain events across the Canadian Prairies.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 14 ¾ carry, Kansas City U/Z 21 carry, U9/U0 75 carry.