Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • White House officials met with biofuel companies today as they try to increase blending mandates. This comes weeks after President Trump’s talk about a giant package to increase ethanol demand.
  • The energy markets were lower across the board today, with October crude oil trading at $55.95 down $1.45 as of 3:30 PM Central.
  • The next WASDE report will be released on September 12th at 11:00 AM Central.

 Corn

Corn traded lower today ahead of the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report. Estimates for the U.S. corn yield are in a massive range, with the bottom end at 163 and the top at 171.5. The extended weather forecasts are starting to show cool temperatures in the mix, but the trade is more focused on the warm 6 to 10 day forecast.

  • The average estimate for the U.S. corn yield is 167.2, with estimates ranging from 163.0 to 171.5. The U.S. corn production average estimate is 13.672 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 13.040 to 14.003 billion bushels. The average estimate for the 2018-2019 U.S. ending stocks is 2.401 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 2.280 to 2.460 billion bushels, and the average estimate for the 2019-2020 U.S. ending stocks is 2.002, with estimates ranging from 1.570 to 2.269 billion bushels.
  • Weekly ethanol production increased 10,000 barrels per day to 1,023,000 barrels per day. Ethanol inventories declined 1.3 million barrels to 22.5 million barrels.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are between -50,000 and 50,000 tonnes for the 2018-2019 marketing year and between 500,000 and 900,000 tonnes for the 2019-2020 marketing year.
  • Closes: December at $3.60 down 1 ½; March at $3.72 ¼ down 2 ¼; May at $3.81 ¾ down 1 ¾; July at $3.89 down 1 ¾.
  • Spreads: Z/H 12 ¾ cent carry; H/K 9 cent carry; K/N 7 ½ cent carry; Z/N 29 cent carry.

 Oilseeds

Soybeans traded lower today, drawing on pre report weakness. Additional weakness comes after rumors circulated yesterday that China would be lifting some tariffs on U.S. goods. They did lift tariffs on a few items, but ag products were not on the list.

  • The average estimate for the U.S. soybean yield is 47.2 bushels per acre, with estimates ranging from 46.0 to 49.0. The average estimate for U.S. production is 3.577 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 3.491 to 3.720. The average estimate for the 2018-2019 U.S. ending stocks is 1.054 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 1.015 to 1.084 billion bushels, and the average estimate for the 2019-2020 U.S. ending stocks is 660 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 595 million bushels to 797 million bushels.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are between -50,000 and 50,000 tonnes of soybeans for the 2018-2019 marketing year and 600,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes for the 2019-2020 marketing year. Soy meal estimates for 2018-2019 are between 25,000 and 75,000 tonnes and estimates for 2019-2020 are between 100,000 and 250,000 tonnes. Soy oil sales are estimated between 0 and 10,000 tonnes for the 2018-2019 marketing year and 5,000 to 25,000 tonnes for the 2019-2020 marketing year.
  • Closes: November at $8.66 ½ down 5 ½; January at $8.80 ½ down 5 ¼; March at $8.94 down 5; May at $9.06 ¼ down 4 ½; July at $9.16 ¼ down 4 ½.
  • Spreads: X/F 14 cent carry; F/H 13 ½ cent carry; H/K 12 ¼ cent carry; X/N 49 ¾ cent carry.

 Wheat

The wheat markets were weaker today, taking a cue from corn and beans. December Kansas City wheat dropped back below the 20-day moving average of $3.99 ¾ after breaking above it yesterday for the first time since mid-July. December Chicago wheat held above it’s 20-day moving average of $4.71 ¼.

  • The average estimate for the U.S. 2019-2020 ending stocks is 1.016 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 989 million bushels to 1.034 billion bushels. The average estimate for world production in 2018-2019 is 275.60 million tonnes, with estimates ranging from 275.49 to 276.00 and the average estimate for 2019-2020 ending stocks is 285.71 million tonnes, with estimates ranging from 283.00 to 287.50.
  • The Ukrainian Grain Traders’ Union raised their forecast for the 2019 wheat crop by 600,000 tonnes, bringing their current estimate to 28.266 million tonnes. They are estimating that 21 million tonnes of the crop will be exported.
  • The Thai Feed Mill Association bought 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat from optional origins for $220.50 with December shipment.
  • Jordan issued a new tender for 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins. The deadline is September 17th.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are between 300,000 and 600,000 tonnes for the 2019-2020 marketing year.
  • December closes: Chicago at $4.77 ½ down 4 ¾; Kansas City at $3.97 ¼ down 6 ½; Minneapolis at $5.02 ½ down 1 ½.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H 14 cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 14 cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 14 ½ cent carry.