Weekly Market Recap
10/4/2019 4:26:50 PM
The US forecast model is calling for a temperature drop of 10 to 20 degrees by October 11Th for MN, IA, WI. Frost and freeze concerns are becoming a reality for northern areas. Rain is expected to move through much of the corn belt from Kansas City to Chicago over the next several days keeping the ground saturated and harvest at bay. China remains on holiday, marking 70 years of communist rule. China and the US are scheduled for talks next week in hopes of easing the tariff war. There are rumors of additional Chinese purchases to accompany the new negotiations.
France has only harvested 6% of its maize crop, last year they were 42% harvested. According to Imea Brazilian farmers have already sold 25% of their second crop corn for 2020. In Mato Grosso that number is 35% forward sold.
The Stocks Report showed the Sept 1 Stocks of corn at 2.114B bushels. This was 322 million bushels under the average trade guess and 256 million bushels under the lowest trade guess. This was a big surprise to the market as just 3 weeks ago in the Sept WASDE the USDA increased the 2019/20 beginning stocks from 2,360 to 2,445 million bushels. Going forward the USDA will have to use 2.114 as the beginning stocks number which will be reflected in the October WASDE. The crop progress report puts the corn crop at 43% mature vs 73% last year at this time. The crop is 88% dented vs 98% for the five-year average. The corn crop is 11% harvested vs the five-year average of 19%. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 15,000 barrels per day to 958,000 barrels per day. This is down 5.6% from the same week last week. The 4-week average is down 4.7% from last year. Stocks were up 700,000 barrels at 23.2 million barrels. Margins jumped 19 cents to 20 cents per gallon.
Snow in Western North America halted wheat harvest while drier weather in Russia is being nervously watched as winter wheat is being seeded. GASC bought one cargo of French wheat in their latest tender. US wheat was not offered. Export shipments from French ports for the week ending October 2nd were down 23%.
China bought 130,000 mt of white wheat yesterday from the US for the 19/20 marketing year. The winter wheat crop is 39% planted vs the five-year average of 38%. The spring wheat crop is 90% harvested vs the five-year average of 99%.
Headlines are saying that Russia’s PM Putin said that China is ready to import as many beans as they can produce. Russia only produces about 4 mmt and exports less than 1 mmt so they won’t be a factor in supplying China for several years.
The stocks report was bullish the soybean market. Stocks were 913 million bushels vs estimates of 982 million bushels. The 2018 soybean crop was revised as they cut last year’s yield to 50.6 BPA from 51.6 BPA Soybeans hit highs not seen since July 22 in follow through from the stocks report. The crop progress has 7% of the soybean crop harvested vs the five-year average of 20%, while 55% of the crop is dropping leaves vs the five-year average of 76%.
South Korea is now battling African Swine Fever as new cases are being reported almost daily now. China is suffering severely as their pork production is estimated to be down 50%. US cash cattle is trading $2 higher this week which is eroding packer margins. Packer margins are still are very solid $240/head.
Nigeria and other members of OPEC are ready to further cut crude production if prices were to continue to tumble. U.S. sanctions against a Chinese shipping company are causing freight rates for hauling U.S. crude to jump significantly higher. By enacting sanctions, the fleet has been constricted, pressuring prices to ship crude higher. California gasoline stocks have fallen to a six year low as a number of refineries in the region are in turnaround. Retail gasoline prices have averaged $4.15 a gallon in the state on Wednesday. U.S. average retail gasoline prices rose to $2.664 a gallon on October 2 according to AAA.