Afternoon Market Highlights
10/9/2019 2:23:59 PM
The grain markets were mixed, positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow’s news. The weekly export sales numbers are scheduled for release at 730, the USDA monthly crop production/S&D report is scheduled for release at 11 and the US/Chinese trade talks are scheduled to begin again in Washington sometime tomorrow. This comes as the US farmers look to beat the clock on when the first of this year’s winter blasts of snow will hit the Dakotas and MN. Montana is already getting nailed with snow this week, which has hampered winter wheat planting and spring wheat harvesting.
- Thursday: US/Chinese trade talks begin, weekly export sales estimates at 730 CDT, USDA crop production and Supply/Demand report at 11 AM CDT.
- CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes on January 23rd at the Inver Grove Heights office. Check the website for registration and agenda at www.chshedging.com.
- The energy markets are slightly higher with crude oil up a hair at $52.73/barrel.
- The US$ is a freckle lower but holding above 99 points at 99.11, the gold market is up 8-9 bucks at $1,509/ounce and the CD$ is off slightly at 0.75135.
- DJIA is up 230 at 26394, S&P up 33 at 2926 and the NASDAQ up 97 at 7921.
The corn market drifted lower on position squaring ahead of a plethora of information to be released tomorrow. This week’s winter storm is expected to have a bigger effect on the soybean crop. Ideas are that the corn crop will remain standing in the fields until a later time. The super friendly ethanol report did very little to push prices higher.
- Closes: December at $3.94 ¾, down 1 ½ cents, July at $4.14 ½, unchanged, September at $4.05 ¼, down ¾ cent, red Dec at $4.08 ¾, down ¼ cent.
- Since early September the December corn has rallied 45 cents.
- Average weekly export sales trade estimate at 500-800 tmt.
- Weekly ethanol production rose by a whopping 5k barrels per day to 963k barrels per day. Stocks saw a 2.0 million barrel decrease to 21.2 million barrels.
- Spreads: Z/H 11 ½ carry, H/K 5 ¼ carry, Z/N 20 ¼ carry, Z/Z 14 ¾ carry.
Soybean prices turned higher overnight on news that China may buy an additional 10.0 mmt of US soybeans ahead of tomorrow’s scheduled trade talks with the US. Prices drew additional support from ideas that this week’s expected winter blast could damage the unharvested soybeans in the Dakotas and MN. Prices retreated from their highs on position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s USDA crop production report.
- Closes: November at $9.23 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents, January at $9.38, up 2 ¾ cents, July at $9.68 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents, red November at $9.69 ¾, up 2 ¼ cents. The products were mixed with meal up 3-4 bucks and oil down 14 points.
- Since early September the November soybeans have rallied 80 cents.
- Average weekly export sales trade estimate: 1.3-1.8 mmt for beans, 100-400 tmt for meal and 5-35 tmt for soyoil.
- The race is on today, for the farmer to get as many soybeans harvested before he gets run out of the field by a blast of snow.Moisture and yield reports are coming
- SA soybean areas are in much need of additional moisture. Forecasts suggest warm/dry for Brazil next week and dry for Argentina over the next two weeks.
- Spreads: X/F 14 ¼ carry, F/H 11 ¾ carry, F/K 21 ½ carry, X/N 45 carry.
The wheat market traded lower on weakness in the row crops and lack of fresh supportive news. The Canadian wheat crop is estimated to be 32.1 mmt, down from the previous estimate of 32.4 mmt with a range from 30.0-34.0 mmt. This compares to the latest USDA forecast at 33.30 mmt.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.41 ¾, down 1 ¾ cents, KC at $4.14, up 3 ¾ cents and Chicago at $5.00 ¼, unchanged.
- Since early September the Mpls Dec has rallied 72 cents, KC Dec has rallied 39 cents, and Chicago Dec has rallied 54 cents.
- Average weekly export sales trade estimate at 300-600 tmt.
- Russia’s Ag Minister estimates their wheat crop at 78.0 mmt and exports at 36.0 mmt.
- Paris milling wheat traded higher on improving demand and technical buying.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Z/Z 48 carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 carry, Z/Z 58 carry, Chicago Z/H 6 ¾ carry, Z/Z 35 ¾ carry. Kansas city gained on Mpls.