Afternoon Market Highlights
11/7/2019 2:58:05 PM
The grain markets were mostly lower with beans and meal showing strength from decent export sales and stronger cash markets amidst tight supplies of beans. Corn and wheat were under pressure from dismal weekly export sales numbers and lack of fresh supportive news.
- The USDA report is scheduled for tomorrow at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- The last trading day for November futures is Thursday, November 14th.
- December option expiration is Friday, November 22nd and First Notice Day for December futures is November 29th (markets open at 8 am and close at 1205 pm that day). All long positions will be reported after the close on the 27th and Thanksgiving Day is the 28th.
- The energy markets are mixed with, crude oil up 68 cents at $57.03/barrel.
- US$ is 206 stronger at $98.60, the gold market got thumped again today, down 23 bucks at $1,469/ ounce and the CD$ is steady at 0.7590.
Corn prices were on the defensive despite a rally in the neighboring soybean market. Prices drew additional pressure from another week of light export sales. The December corn closed 2cents below its 50% retracement from the September low of $3.52 and the October high of $4.02 ¼.
- Closes: December at $3.75 ¼, down 3 ½ cents, July at $3.97 ¾, down 3 cents, September at $3.94 ¾, down 2 cents, and red December at $3.99 ½, down 1 ½ cents and the first close below $4 since September 12.
- Gulf premiums were a penny weaker for November.
- Weekly export sales at 488 tmt were in line with trade estimates but well below what is needed on a weekly basis.
- South Africa looks to be facing another year of hot/dry weather. Corn plantings are being delayed from very dry soil beds.This could be the second year of drought-like conditions in South Africa’s crop growing areas.There are concerns of having major food shortages in the country.
- Spreads: Z/H 8 ¼ carry, H/K 6 ¾ carry, H/N 13 ½ carry, Z/N 21 ¾ carry, Z/Z 23 ¾ carry.
The soybean market traded higher early in the session on renewed optimism about Phase I trade dealings and the removal of tariffs that were imposed on the US and China during the trade war. Prices drew additional strength from solid weekly export sales and new sales announcements this morning.
- Closes: January at $9.36 ½, up 9 cents, July at $9.70 ¾, up 7 ½ cents, November at $9.72 ¼, up 5 cents. The products were mixed with meal up 6-7 bucks and soyoil down 32 points.
- Soymeal strength came from decent export sales and stronger cash markets on light supplies of soybeans delivered to the crush plants.
- Gulf premiums were 2 cents firmer. PNW bids at 94F/98F for LH Nov and 92F for D/J.
- The canola market closed lower on spillover weakness in the US soyoil market.
- China continues to keep restrictions on Canadian canola, despite opening the doors for their pork products.
- Weekly exports sales were solid at 1.8 mmt. Over 900 tmt were slated to China.
- The USDA announced the sale of 133k tonnes of soymeal to the Philippines and 136k tonnes of beans to China, both for the current marketing year.
- Spreads: F/H 12 ½ carry, F/K 23 ¾ carry, F/N 34 carry. The corn/soybean ratio is at 2.43 slightly favoring beans.
The wheat market suffers from lack of fresh supportive news and dismal weekly export sales. Technical weakness and spillover weakness in the corn market provided additional pressure. Chicago Dec broke through support at its 20-Day MA of $5.15. Mpls Dec sits below most all MA’s. The KC Dec sits between its 10 & 20-Day MA’s.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.18 ¾, down 4 ½ cents, KC at $4.24 ¾, down 3 cents, Chicago at $5.12 ½, down 4 ¼ cents.
- Weekly export sales were disappointing at 361 tmt.
- The Argentine wheat harvest is estimated at 7%. Total production was last estimated at 18.8 mmt with additional crop losses to come should dry weather conditions continue.
- Paris million wheat turned lower ahead of tomorrow’s USDA world production estimates.
- Japan bought 124k tonnes of for D/J shipment (9 US White, 15 US HRW, 33 US spring, 35 Canadian spring and 32 Australian white).
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 16 ¼ carry, Z/Z 54 ¼ carry, Kansas city Z/H 8 ¼ carry, Z/Z 44 ¼ carry.