Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • As of 6:30 central: Dow Jones Futures were down 113 points, the US Dollar index was up 200 points, Gold was up $12.70 per ounce and WTI crude oil as down 40 cents per barrel.
  • This morning’s temperature maps show single digit temperatures across the Ohio Valley, while the Central US is noticeably warmer.The 6-10-day weather models show normal to above normal temperatures with above normal moisture across the central US.
  • Dean foods, the largest bottler of fluid milk, filed for bankruptcy yesterday.Dean foods said in a statement that it is working with Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) on a potential deal in which DFA would by almost all of the company. 

Corn

  • The crop progress report showed the corn harvest at 66% nationwide, that compares to a 5-year average of 85%.The states that are the most behind average are ND (15 vs. 75), SD (39 vs. 82) and WI (30 vs. 65).
  • CONAB kept its estimate for Brazil’s corn production unchanged from last month at 98.4 MMT.The USDA is estimating Brazil’s corn crop at 101 MMT.
  • Spreads this morning: Z/H 8 ¾ cent carry; Z/K 15 cent carry; Z/N 20 ¾ cent carry. 

Outlook: 1 to 2 lower to start.  However, with 1/3 of the crop still to be harvested, we expect traders to continue to keep one eye on the US weather forecasts. 

Oilseeds

  • The president said tariffs would be "raised very substantially" if no deal was reached with China before the Dec 15 deadline. Separately, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro told reporters “unless you hear it from President Trump or U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer with regards to trade, do not believe it.”
  • This morning’s weather models shows a better chance of moisture for southern Brazil and the 6 to 10 models are wetter for northern Brazil and central Argentina.
  • The crop progress report showed soybean harvest at 85% nationwide, the 5 year average is 92%.WI, MO, MI & ND are all still below 75% complete.
  • CONAB increased its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop by 0.5 MMT to 120.4 MMT.The USDA is estimating Brazil’s soybean crop at 123 MMT.
  • Spreads this morning: F/H 13 ¼ cent carry; F/N 36 ½ cent carry; N/X 3 ¼ cent carry. 

Outlook: Flat to 1 higher to start.  It is likely to be a choppy session as the off-again/on-again nature of the trade talks with China have traders numb to the latest rumblings.  

Wheat

  • The crop progress report showed winter wheat planning at 88%.That compares to a 5-year average of 92% complete.The report also showed the winter wheat crop 54% good/excellent, that compares to 57% last year.
  • The CME deliverable stocks report that was released yesterday showed a decline of 3.710 MB of SWR (mostly Toledo) and a decline of 1.606 HRW (mostly Wichita).
  • Spreads this morning: Chicago Z/H 5 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 7 cents carry; Minneapolis Z/H 14 ½ cent carry. 

Outlook: 3 to 5 lower to start as the market relaxes from yesterday’s very strong close.