Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

The grain markets were mostly lower on lack of fresh supportive news. Light support stems from slower than expected demand. No trade war deal on the table yet, although talks continue. Harvest activity takes a back step after the weekend’s winter storm moved across the US Midwest.  Crop may remain in the fields until later this winter or next spring.     

  • The last trading day for January options is December 27th. First Notice Day for January futures is Tuesday, December 31st with all long positions reported on Monday December 30th.
  • Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 86 cents at $55.98/barrel.
  • US$ is weaker, down 440 at 97.83, the gold market is down 4-5 bucks at 1465 and the CD$ is down 0.0008 at 0.75245.
  • DJIA down 189 at 27862, S&P down 26 at 3118 and NASDAQ down 81 at 8584.
  • StatsCan to release their updated production estimates on Friday, December 6th.
  • USDA to release their updated production and S/D estimates on December 10th at 11 AM CT. 

Corn

Corn prices traded slightly higher on slowed harvest progress in the US Upper Midwest. Gains were limited from weak demand for US corn. Prices saw additional support from a bout of technical buying. Processors have been actively seeking corn (with a minimum of 50 pound test weight).   

  • Closes: March at $3.82, up ¾ cent, July at $3.90 ¼, unchanged, September at $3.87 ¾, down ¼ cent and December at $3.91 ¼, up ¼ cent.
  • Gulf premiums were 8 cents weaker for December (46/51).
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 429 tmt, below trade estimates of 500-700 tmt.
  • Harvest progress is expected to be at 89% (86-91) complete versus 84% complete last week.
  • StatsCan pegs their corn crop at 13.7 mmt versus 14.1 mmt back in September.
  • Spreads: H/K 4 ½ carry, H/N 8 carry, N/Z ¾ carry. 

Oilseeds

Soybean prices dipped to September lows on worries that a trade deal with China may not get done this year. There seem to be a few snags that are just not able to be resolved anytime soon.SA weather conditions mostly favorable for Brazil over the next couple of weeks with expected improvements coming for Argentina in the next week or so. 

  • Closes: January at $8.70 ½, down 6 ¼ cents, July at $9.13 ½, down 4 ¾ cents, November at $9.24 ¾, down 2 ¼ cents. The products were mixed with meal up 40 cents and oil down 46 points.
  • Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged at 57 for Dec and Jan.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 1.5 mmt, near the low end of trade estimates between 1.4-2.0 mmt.
  • Harvest progress is expected to be 97% (96-98) complete versus 94% last week. The last 3-4% may not get harvested after this past weekend’s winter storm.
  • StatsCan pegs their canola crop at 19.6 mmt slightly higher than their September estimate of 19.4 mmt.
  • Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean crop is estimated at 122.7 mmt, with decent exports to follow.
  • Spreads: F/H 14 ¾ carry, F/K 29 ¾ carry, F/N 42 ¾ carry, N/X 10 ¾ carry, X/F 6 ¼ carry. 

Wheat

Wheat prices were on the defensive from a bout of profit taking after Friday’s rally and weak export demand.  Global supplies remain plentiful, despite concerns of possible crop shortfalls in Australia and Argentina. The Canadian wheat crop is expected to be pretty much like the past few years. 

  • March closes: Mpls $5.09 ¾, down 4 ¾ cents (contract low is at $5.00 ¼), KC at $4.40 ½, down 6 ½ cents, Chicago at $5.35 ¼, down 6 ½ cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 247 tmt (including 2 tmt shipments to Canada). Trade was looking for 400-600 tmt (59 DNS, 126 HRW, 18 SRW, 119 White and 21 HD).
  • Egypt’s GASC is in for optional origin wheat for LH Jan shipment. Algeria seeks mill wheat for Feb Shipment.
  • StatsCan estimate for all wheat is at 32.6 mmt on par with their September estimate of 32.5 mmt. Their durum crop is estimated at 5.0 mmt, also unchanged from their September estimate.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 9 carry, Kansas City H/K 8 ¼ carry, Chicago H/K 3 ½ carry.