Afternoon Market Highlights
6/11/2019 2:36:28 PM
And wait no more about whether the USDA will adjust the corn yield from this year’s very wet spring, resulting in very late planted corn across the ECB and parts of the WCB. More rain looks to be headed for the ECB and Southern Plains area over the next several days.
- Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil trading either side of unchanged at $53.25/barrel.
- The US$ down 51 at 96.71, the gold market up 1-2 bucks at 1328 and the CD$ down a freckle at 0.7527.
- DJIA down 26 at 26036, S&P down 6 at 2882, NASDAQ down 6at 7816.
- CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26.Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.
The corn market opened lower on increased plantings and favorable weather the past several days. Prices turned sharply higher after the release of the USDA data. More rain looks to be in the cards for the ECB and Southern Plains area over the next 5-7 days.
- Closes: July at $4.27 ¾, up 12 cents, September at $4.36 ¼, up 12 ¼ cents and December at $4.47, up 12 ½ cents.
- USDA data, who reported the 2019/20 yield at 166.0 bpa, down 10 bpa from their May report.
- USDA lowered corn acres for 2019/20 3.0 million acres, with many thoughts we will see a bigger haircut to acres in their June 28 acreage update.
- 2019/20 world ending stocks were lowered 24.19 mmt (34.19 mmt in US production, 7.62 mmt cut to US feed). Argentina’s corn was raised 1.0 mmt to 50.0 mmt and Canada’s corn was lowered 1.4 mmt to 14.0 mmt.
- Spreads: N/U 8 ½ carry, U/Z 10 ¾ carry, Z/H 8 ½ carry, N0/Z0 40 inverse.
Soybean prices took direction from the corn market, closing the day up ¾ cent with a 13-cent trading range ($8.50 ¼-$8.63 ½ in the July contract and $8.77 ¾-$8.90 ¾ in the November contract). Gains were limited from increased carryout for both crop years and ideas we could still see more bean acres planted (as if we don’t have enough beans already). The USDA lowered 2018/19 exports, while leaving all else unchanged from their May report.
- Closes: July at $8.59 2/4, up ¾ cent, August at $8.66 ¼, up 1 cent and November at $8.87, up 1 ¼ cent.
- 2018/19 carry went from 995 mb in May to 1.07 bb in June. The 2019/20 carryout went form 970 mb in May to 1.045 bb in June.
- 2018/19 exports were lowered 75 mb and 19/20 exports were left unchanged.
- Spreads: N/Q 7 carry, Q/X 20 ¾ carry, X/F 13 ¼ carry, X/N 43 carry.
Wheat prices opened higher on lack of fresh supportive news. Prices turned higher on the coattails of the corn market. More rain for the Southern Plains and the ECB is expected to cause damage to the winter wheat crop (despite the old saying “rain makes grain”). Dryness continues for the Black Sea Region, EU, Australia and parts of the Canadian Prairies.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.69 ½, up 1 cent, KC at $4.58, up 5 cents, and Chicago at $5.18, up 10 ½ cents.
- Russia remains dry for the next few days.Their crop is estimated anywhere from 73.0 mmt to 82.0 mmt. The USDA raised their estimate for Russia to 78.0 mmt versus 77.0 mmt in May.
- 2019/20 winter wheat breakdown: all winter wheat at 1.251 bb, HRW at 765 mb, SRW at 261 mb and White Winter at 224 mb. All wheat was pegged at 1.883 bb.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 8 ¼ carry, U/Z 9 ¾ carry, Kansas City N/U 12 ¾ carry (still gunning for a higher storage rate for September).