Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • CHS Hedging is offering an Energy Risk Management class on June 19th, Grain Hedging classes on June 25th, and a Technical Analysis class on June 26th.
  • President Trump was quoted saying early today that he hopes the USMCA trade pact gets approved quickly and that both Canada and Mexico are in support of the deal.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was up 0.023 to 97.023 points.
  • The Dow Jones mini futures are up 31 points overnight to 26,043.
  • The energy markets moved higher today with nearby crude up $0.96 to $52.10 per barrel.

    Corn

    The corn market finally made the move we were all expecting today by breaking the most recent highs across the first 3 contract months. So far this week, the USDA reported that there was 16 million acres left to plant as of Sunday night, the USDA made a massive supply cut Tuesday, we saw record ethanol production on Wednesday, and then received a flash sale of corn to Mexico this morning. On top of that, the latest GFS/Euro model forecasts continue to call for rain across the eastern corn belt for the next 5-7 days. Extended forecasts beyond that also call for cool and wet weather for at least the next two weeks. Farmer selling was finally present in the marketplace after going relatively quiet during the price setback over the last few weeks. Basis is still ratcheting higher and spreads made a massive move inwards today. If the spreads are telling us a story, we should have some more upside to come.

  • CIF corn values were up a couple pennies throughout today. Basis continues to remain firm across the corn belt.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchanged bumped up its Argentinian corn production estimate 2 mmt to 50.5 mmt for the 18/19 crop year.
  • There was a flash sale of 175,000 tons of corn sold to Mexico for the 19/20 marketing year this morning.
  • Export sales for corn came in at 168,500 tons for 18/19 and 94,100 for 19/20 vs estimates of 250,000-500,000 tons and 100,000-300,000 tons respectively.
  • The December/July corn spread is at its narrowest level for this time of year since 2016.
  • Spreads: N/U 5 ¼ cent carry, N/Z 13 ½ cent carry, Z/H 5 cent carry, Z/N 7 ¼ cent carry.

    Oilseeds

    The bean market found support from the continually wet forecast, but for the most part the bean complex rode the coattails of the corn market today. Although bean planting is late, with corn planting all but wrapped up in many areas, the producer has been able to dedicate more time to getting the remaining beans in where fit. That being said, we have also gotten this soybean crop off to the wrong foot and should be able to trend higher with the corn market for the time being. The natural selling from the farmer still isn’t present in this market, but another 10-20 cents may start engaging sales.

  • CIF beans were up as much as a nickel in the front months early today.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange dropped its Argentinian soybean production estimate from 57 mmt to 56.5 mmt due to heavy rains.
  • Export sales for soybeans came in at 255,900 for 18/19 and 275,200 for 19/20 vs estimates of 200,000-500,000 tons and 100,000-300,000 tons respectively. Soymeal exports were 112,500 tons 18/19 and soyoil was seen at 5,100 tons 18/19.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ cent carry, Q/U 7 cent carry, U/X 13 ½ cent carry, X/N 33 ¾ cent carry.

    Wheat

    Wheat spreading continues to be the main focus within the market as of late. The rains that are set to hit the Midwest continue to have varying effects on the 3 wheat classes: recent and forecasted rains across North Dakota are helping solve dryness concerns in Mpls wheat country, rains in HRW harvest areas are causing some concerns, but the less hardy SRW crop is starting to garner a lot of concern after round after round of rain has come through. If the forecasted rains do connect, and corn continues its rally higher, the wheat complex should trail and maybe even lead us higher for now.

  • July Chicago wheat now commands a 67-cent premium over July KC wheat. July KC wheat has also gained on Mpls, as that spread is in under a $1 premium to Mpls now.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 19/20 Argentinian wheat production forecast to 22 mmt early today.
  • Export sales for wheat came in at 49,100 tons for 19/20. A total of 1.587 mmt were carried over from 2018/19 to 19/20.
  • Spreads: N/U Chicago 3 cent carry, KC 13 cent carry, Mpls 7 ¾ cent carry.