Afternoon Market Highlights
6/21/2019 3:23:40 PM
The grain markets were softer from forecasts for weather pattern change to warm and dry early next week. July options expiration provided additional pressure to the market. Energy markets were stronger with crude oil trading above $57/barrel. The US$ was weaker, gold was stronger, and the stock market was on the defensive.
- May Cattle on Feed report: On feed June 1 at 101.6%, May placements at 97.2% and May marketings at 100.7%.
- The USDA is said to allow cover crops on prevent planted acres to be grazed and/or harvested on or after September 1st and still maintain their eligibility for the full year pp payment.
- Weekly crop progress/conditions report Monday at 3 PM CDT.
- The USDA grain stocks and updated acreage report Friday at 11 CDT.
- StatsCan acreage update on Wednesday.
- End of month, end of Quarter and First Notice Day for July futures on Friday, June 28th.
The corn market traded lower on fund selling after tickling 5-year highs at the start of the week. Warm/dry weather is expected to hit the Midwest next week, after the rain events pass through. Underlying support comes from the big unknow in this year’s corn crop. The market awaits next Monday’s crop conditions report.
- Closes: July at $4.42 ¼, down 7 ¾ cents, September at $4.47 ½, down 7 ¼ cents and December at $4.53 ½, down 7 ½ cents.
- Today’s July options expiration helped to push prices lower.
- Last week’s crop conditions rated the corn at 59% G/E, unchanged from the previous week. Not sure how much the conditions improved this week with the cool temperatures and rain moving around the Midwest.
- Argentina’s 2018/19 corn crop is estimated at 57.0 mmt versus 56.0 previously.
- Spreads: N/U 5 ¼ carry, U/Z 6 ¼ carry, Z/H 5 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 49 inverse (5 ¾ cents weaker).
Soybean prices traded lower on July options expiration and forecasts for improving weather conditions early next week. Crop conditions are expected to be low on Monday’s report. Farmers struggled this week to get soybeans planted. Planting progress is expected to be 87-90% complete versus 77% last week.
- Closes: July at $9.02 ¾, down 12 ¾ cents, August at $9.08 ½, down 13 ¼ cents at November at $9.27 ½, down 13 ½ cents. The products were lower with meal down 7-8 bucks and oil down 15 points.
- Canola trade weaker on a wetter outlook across the Canadian Prairies over the next few days and weakness in the US soy complex.
- Spreads: N/Q carry, Q/X 18 ¾ carry, X/F 12 ¾ carry, X/N 29 ¼ carry.
The wheat market traded lower in sympathy with the corn and bean markets. Spring wheat is getting much needed rain this week and the winter wheat continues to live in very soggy fields from too much rain. Mpls July is at an 8 ¾ cent premium to Chicago July and a 77 ¾ cent premium to KC July.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.36, down 2 ¼ cents, KC at $4.52 ¾, down 7 ¾ cents and Chicago at $5.26, down ½ cent.
- Winter wheat crop conditions are expected to decline after all the rain this week and weekend.
- Spring wheat conditions should improve from this week’s rain events and cooler weather.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 7 ½ carry, U/Z 12 ¾ carry, Kansas City N/U 11 ¾ carry, Chicago N/U 4 ¾ carry.