Afternoon Market Highlights
7/29/2019 2:47:20 PM
The Ag markets were higher today with the wheat market taking the lead on dryness in parts of Russia, Ukraine and Australia. End of month position squaring is expected with first notice day for August futures on Wednesday this week. All long positions will be reported after the close of business tomorrow.
- Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and Wednesday........thoughts are that there will be a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates.
- US/Chinese face to face trade talks are expected to begin in China tomorrow with ideas of not making a lot of progress.
- The market awaits the next USDA crop production/supply and demand report on August 12th.
- Full moon schedule: August 15th, September 14th and October 12th.
- The energy markets are mixed with crude oil just shy of $57/barrel.
- The US$ is steady at 98 points, the gold market is up 7-8 bucks at $1,413/ounce and the CD$ steady at 0.76085.
- DJIA up 25 at 27217, S&P down 1-2 at 3023 and the NASDAQ down 40 at 82901.
Corn prices held together for most of the day in light volume. More favorable weather forecasts are in the works for the Upper Midwest with beneficial rains expected in the ECB. Hearing that southern Illinois is receiving rain today.
- Closes: September at $4.17, up 2 ½ cents, December at $4.27, up 2 ½ cents, July at $4.44 ¼, up 2 cents.
- CIF premiums were mostly unchanged.
- Weekly inspections report: 645 tmt versus trade estimates of 400-700 tmt.
- Crop progress/conditions report is expected to be steady to down 1% G/E, from recent heat and dryness throughout the US Midwest. Lat week was rated 57% G/E.
- Spreads: U/Z 10 carry, Z/H 9 ¾ carry, Z/N 17 ¼ carry, N0/Z0 26 ¾ carry.
Soybeans prices traded modestly higher in light volume most of the day. There are mixed feelings about tomorrow’s face to face meet in China. Some are hopeful that China will begin buying beans and other US ag products soon, while others are doubtful that we get anything of significance accomplished this year.
- Closes: August at $8.85 ¾, up 2 ½ cents, November at $9.04 ¼, up 3 ¼ cents and July at $9.48 ¾, up 3 ½ cents. The products were mixed with meal up a buck and oil down 4 points.
- CIF premiums were mostly unchanged. Hearing one cargo off the PNW to China was noted over the weekend (no confirmation of that though).
- Weekly export inspections report: 1.031 mmt, above trade estimates of 400-800 tmt.
- Crop progress/conditions report is expected to be steady to down 1% G/E after the recent hot/dry conditions. Last week was rated at 54% G/E.
- Spreads: Q/X 18 ½ carry, X/F 13 ½ carry, X/N 44 ½ carry.
The wheat market drew strength from ongoing crop concerns in Russia, Ukraine and Australia. Dryness was also noted, last week, in many fields across northern and northeastern North Dakota. Hearing that there is lots of grain looking to move in North Dakota, although many elevators are full or nearly full and are waiting on trains to load out.
- September closes: Mpls at $5.32 ½, up 8 cents, KC at $4.35, up 3 cents and Chicago at $5.03 ½, up 7 ½ cents.
- Weekly export inspections report: 391 tmt compared to trade estimates of 350-550 tmt.
- Crop progress/conditions report is expected to show spring wheat at 76% G/E, unchanged from last week.Winter wheat harvest is estimated at 81% complete, compared to 69% complete last week.
- Winter wheat harvest could begin, in the great state of Montana, as early as this week.
- Spreads: Mpls U/Z 10 ¼ carry, Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Kansas City U/Z 17 ½ carry, U/U 63 ¼ carry, Chicago U/Z 5 carry.