Afternoon Market Highlights
1/23/2020 3:01:41 PM
The grain markets were mixed with corn stronger on improving demand and technicals, beans down on lack of Chinese buying after the Phase One trade agreement and big SA crop ideas. There was a fair amount of selling from the country today.
- IEG Vantage pegs the 2020 corn acres at 93.442 million acres, soybean acres at 86.500 million acres, winter wheat acres at 30.804 million acres, HAD at 1.445 million acres, and spring wheat at 13.280 million acres.
- StatsCan Dec 31 stocks of principal crops report is scheduled for release on February 5th.
- Weekly export sales out tomorrow morning.
- The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down over a buck at $55.60/barrel.
- The US$ is up 160 at 97.687, the gold market is up 5-6 bucks at $1,561/ounce and the CD$ is up 0.0008 at 0.76165.
- DJIA down 13 at 29170, S&P up 2-3 at 3322 and NASDAQ up 21 at 9405.
The corn market popped the top of its recent trading range on technical buying and improving demand for US corn. Another 6-12 inches of snow fell across the eastern and central part of North Dakota this past weekend. Harvest progress is estimated at 45-50% complete. The USDA Attaché pegs he Argentine corn crop at 48.0 mmt versus the USDA forecast o f50.0 mmt.
- Closes: March at $3.93 ¾, up 5 cents, July at $4.03 ¼, up 4 ¼ cents, September at $4.00 ¾ cents, up 2 ¾ cents, December at $4.03 ¼, up 2 ½ cents.
- International Grains Council raised their 2019/20 world corn production estimate 8.0 million tonnes to 1.111 billion tonnes.
- The USDA reported a sales of 14141k tonnes of corn to an unknown destination for 2019/2020 and another sale of 144k tonnes of corn to Guatemala for 2019/20 & 2020/21.
- Weekly export sale estimates: 700 tmt -1.2 mmt.
- Spreads: H/K 4 ¾ carry, H/N 9 ¼ carry, N/Z ¼ inverse, Z0/N1 16 carry.
The soy complex took a step back again today on lack of fresh supportive news. News of Chinese purchases are not expected until sometime after their Lunar New Year holiday this week (no confirmation of that......going on pure speculation at this point).
- Closes: March at $9.09 ½, down 4 ¼ cents, July at $9.37, down 4 ¼ cents and November at $9.47 ¼, down 3 cents. The products were mixed with meal up a buck and oil down 54 points.
- Favorable weather continues in SA although there are some forecasts suggesting a drying out pattern coming for Argentina. Early harvest reports are showing decent yields in parts of Brazil.
- ICG pegs the 2019/20 world soybean production at 342.0 mmt, up 1.0 mmt from their previous estimate.
- Weekly export sales estimates: 700 tmt to 1.2 mmt for beans, 200-450 tmt for meal and 5-26 tmt for soyoil.
- Argentina’s soybean plantings were last at 97% complete with most all the crop rated G/E.
- The canola market traded lower in sympathy with palm oil and soyoil, along with a bit of technical selling.
- Spreads: H/K 13 ¾ carry, H/N 27 ¾ carry, N/X 10 ¼ carry, X/F 4 ¾ carry.
The wheat market traded higher on ideas of tightening global supplies. Australia struggles with crop losses from drought like conditions, France wrestles with ongoing strikes and Russia proposed capping their wheat exports.
- March closes: Mpls at $5.55 ¾, up ¼ cent, KC at $4.91 ¾, down ¾ cent, Chicago at $5.80 ½, up 2 ¾ cents.
- ICG lowered their 2019/20 world wheat production 1.0 mmt to 761.0 mmt.
- Weekly export sales estimates; 300-800 tmt.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ¾ carry, Kansas City H/K 7 ½ carry, Chicago H/K 1 ½ inverse. Mpls H at a 63cent premium to KC H and Chicago H at a 24 ½ cent premium over Mpls H.