Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

A good day was seen in the grain markets from borrowed strength in the energy and equity markets, along with concerns of freeze damage to the newly planted row crops and developing SRW crop.  This weekend is expected to see some seriously cold temperatures across the US Midwest. The Canadian Prairies are expected to be cool the next 10 days with showers possible.   

 

  • The energy market turned lower with crude oil down 60 cents at 23.39/barrel (22.94-26.74).
  • The US$ is lower, down 229 at 99.86, the gold market is up 39-40 bucks at 1727/ounce and the CD$ is up 0.0066at 0.71475.
  • DJIA up 211 at 23875 (23909-24094), S&P up 46 at 2880, NASDAQ up 126 at 8979.
  • North Dakota’s coal -fired power plant (Coal Creek Station in central ND) looks to shutter its doors in 2022, leaving room for competing wind energy.
  • StatsCan suggests their acreage numbers to be valued with caution as they received a much lower response to their survey this year because of the CoronaVirus situation.

 

Corn

The corn market got a boost from borrowed strength in the energy and equity markets. Prices drew additional support from the Chinese purchase of US corn and fears of possible damage to the newly planted crop with this weekend’s forecast for super chilly temperatures across the US Midwest. Canola planting in Saskatchewan is off to a good start with 2% of the crop in the ground.

 

  • Closes: July at $3.18 ½, up 4 cents, September at $3.23 ½, up 3 ¼ cents, December at $3.34 ¼, up 3 cents.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 872 tmt compared to trade estimates between 700 tmt and 1.7 mmt.
  • USDA announced the sale of 686 tmt of corn to China (371 for the current marketing year and 315 for the next marketing year. South Korea (KFA) bought 68k tonnes of SA corn for Sept.
  • Average trade estimates for next week’s USD report: US ending stocks for 2019/20 2.224 billion bushels (2.092-2.457) and 3.389 billion bushels (2.665-4.295) for 2020/21.
  • World stocks estimates at 305.74 mmt (20.00-325.00) for 2019/20 and 319.56 mmt (289.00-365.00) for 2020/21.
  • 19/20 SA production estimated at 49.54 mmt (49-50) for Argentina and 99.28 mmt (97-101) for Brazil.
  • Spreads: N/U 5 ¼ carry, N/Z 16 carry, Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Z/N 25 ½ carry.

Oilseeds

The soy complex garnered strength from a bout of short covering ahead on next week’s USDA S&D report. Prices drew additional support from strength in the energy markets along with optimism of increased demand for US beans from China. The canola market traded higher in sympathy with the US soy complex and less than expected planted acres and March 31 stocks.

 

  • Closes: July at $8.43 ¾, up 11 ¼ cents, August at $8.44 ¼, up 10 ¼ cents and November at $8.47, up 7 ¾ cents. The products were mixed with meal unchanged at $288.10/ton and oil up 41 points at 26.25.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 831 tmt, near the low end of trade estimates of 700 tmt-1.4 mmt.
  • Average trade estimates for US ending stocks: 0.448 mb (0.430-0.542) for 2019/20 and 0.430 mb (0.299-0.635) for 2020/21.
  • World stocks estimates at 99.73 mmt (97.50-101.13) for 2019/20 and 104.04 mmt (96.06-115.00) for 2020/21.
  • 19/20 SA production estimated at 51.36 mmt (50.00-52.50) for Argentina and 123.13 mmt (120.58-124.50) for Brazil.
  • StatsCan pegged their canola acreage at 20.6 million acres, below trade estimates of 21.1 million and the smallest acreage seen since 2013. March stocks were estimated down 12.3% from last year at 8.9 mmt.
  • Spreads: N/Q ¼ carry, Q/X 3 carry, N/X 3 ½ carry, X/F ¾ carry, X/H 15 ¼ inverse, X/N1 11 ¼ inverse.

     

    Wheat

     Wheat prices were stronger on threats to the SRW crop with forecasts for freezing temperatures across the US Midwest over the weekend. Rain moving around the US southern Plains bring much needed moisture to the HRW crop (much more will be needed over the next month). The harvest is expected to begin mid to late June. Mpls lags KC and Chicago on planting ideas. Last week was reported at 21% complete (15% in ND) with ideas we could be closer to 50% by Monday.

     

     

  • July closes: Mpls at $5.11, up 3 ¼ cents, KC at $4.78 ½, up 1 cents and Chicago at $5.21, up 3 ½ cents.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 380 tmt with less than a month to go in the marketing year. The new marketing year begins in June.
  • Average trade estimates for wheat production: All Wheat at 1.847 billion bushels (1.773-1.970), All Winter Wheat at 1.245 bb (1.200-1.310), HRW at 0.739 mb (0.678-0.812), SRW at 0.280 mb (0.233-0.305) and White Winter Wheat at 0.226 mb (0.202-0.239).
  • European wheat prices were higher in sympathy with the US wheat market. Recent rain events throughout Europe and the Black Sea region have been most beneficial but more regular rain events will be needed to finish out the crop.
  • StatsCan pegged their all wheat acreage at 25.4 million acres, above last year and trade expectations. Durum acres were pegged at 5.2 million, up 6.8% over last year.
  • Wheat stocks were reported at 17.8 million tonnes compared to last year at 17.5 mmt.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 10 ¾ carry, N/N 50 ¼ carry, U/Z 13 carry, Kansas City N/U 6 ¾ carry, U/Z 11 ¼ carry.