Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • US government remains in partial shutdown though the FSA has announced it will reopen all offices today.

  • Grains and oilseeds are mixed overnight. Energy markets are weaker.

  • US stock futures are trading higher and the US$ index is higher. 

Corn

  • The corn market sees modestly light volumes, beginning the overnight session a little firmer but encountered some sell pressure beginning around 4am to push prices fractionally lower by 5am.

  • News is routine as the partial government shutdown continues and trade talks appear ongoing with no resolution. As the market moves forward without USDA data, some attention in beginning to turn to planted acres. An acres increase is expected in 2019 and Informa’s January survey estimate is 91.5 million.

  • Argentina and Brazil continues to see scattered rains, though Brazil remains dry in some areas, the precip received is keeping a major drought at bay as they plant the safrinha crop.

  • CH continues in a narrow, consolidating pattern with its 50 and 100-day moving averages in play nearly every day.

  • Ethanol stats will be released this morning with production expected to be flat week to week with stocks expected to remain record large.

  • Spreads: H/K 8 ½ carry, K/N 8 cent carry. 

Outlook:  Sideways trade and still stuck in a trading range 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market traded higher in the overnight before encountering some selling around 4am. US/China trade talks remain at center stage, providing some traders with optimism that a resolution will lead to China resuming its purchases of US soybeans. The key is whether they buy as many as they used to.

  • Scattered rains across both Argentina and Brazil, though extended forecasts show very little precip expected in Mato Grosso. Most other areas receive enough to keep a major drought muted.

  • Brazil’s port export lineup continues to grow at a quick rate, the result of their early and rapid harvest so far. Nearly every boat is loading for China.

  • Cold temps could slow movement to some US crushers over the next week.

  • Informa’s January survey on acres resulted in an estimate of 86.2 million, above many of the early trade estimates.

  • March palm oil closed higher again and China’s Dalian beans were also higher.

  • South Korea is reported to have bought 1 cargo of non-gmo US beans.

  • Spreads: H/K 13 ¾ carry......K/N 13 carry. 

Outlook: Steady/weaker, well off the overnight highs and no trade talks progress 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets all move steady/better overnight with the nearby contracts staying in a choppy 5 cent trading range.

  • Reuters reports that Russia’s Ag Minister is asking ports to provide weekly grain export data and intentions as the Russia government says it is trying to get to a balanced usage of export capacity as they assess infrastructure to determine whether they can double grain exports in the future.

  • Ukraine’s wheat shipments are down 6.7% this marketing year.

  • In its regular weekly tender, Japan bought 53.1tmt US, 24.3tmt Canada and 24.6tmt Australia. Taiwan has tendered for 55tmt US milling quality wheat.

  • Paris Milling wheat futures are slightly higher overnight.

  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 4 ¼ carry, K/N 6 ½ carry......Kansas City H/K at 9 ¼  carry, K/N 8 ½ carry…WH/K 5 ¾ and K/N 5 ½ carry. 

Outlook: Steady/firm