2/5/2019 7:12:28 AM
- CFTC will release another week of updated data this afternoon for the last week of December.
- USDA will release the regular Feb S&D report this Friday 2/8/19 along with the delayed January reports, including the Dec quarterly stocks report, and winter wheat planting intentions, and final corn/bean production yield estimates.
- Markets were very quiet in overnight trade.
- President Trump will give his State of the Union address this evening.
- Asian markets are closed for Lunar New Year.
- U. S. Dollar index +.090 @ 95.924, Dow futures +91 @ 25,277, Crude Oil futures -.37 @ $54.19.
- Export inspections for last week totaled 35.4 mil bushels. This was a bit off the pace from last week. For the marketing year, total corn loadings total 884.4 mil bushels compared to the previous year at 586.2 mil, showing a solid increase in export demand.
Outlook: corn futures seemed to be flat-lining to start the week. Little is expected as far as directional drive as the market waits to make it to Friday’s report dump of back-logged data. Finding a fresh story is very difficult. Calls: mixed/unchanged
- Export inspections for last week totaled 35.8 mil bushels.This included 6 cargoes loaded for mainland China. However, cumulative bean export loadings are down 38% from last year at this time.
- CME soybean open interest was up 19,500 contracts yesterday.
- A 612k ton China bean sale was announced yesterday morning, and the market expects additional sales announced the next few days.
- Private forecasts by Dr. Michael Cordonier for Brazilian bean production were lowered 1 mil tons to 113.0 mil.He left Argentine bean production unchanged at 55.0 mil tons.
- Brazilian bean harvest is estimated to be 19% complete, compared to the 5 year average pace at 10%.
Outlook: beans found mild support for most of the day on Monday. CIF bean basis continued with a firmer tone yesterday, as a result of this fresh round of China business. But spreads have remained lackluster. The trade still expects up to 5 mil tons could likely come out of this latest round of buying. Calls: steady/unchanged
- Stats Canada will release wheat, canola, and barley Dec 31st stocks estimate on Tuesday Feb 5th. The average estimate for all wheat stocks is 23.4 mil tons.
- CME VSR running average for WH/K is at 30%, with KWH/K at 41%. An average under 50% of full carry would trigger a storage rate contraction.
- Export inspections for last week totaled 16.1 mil bushels for all wheat loadings. By class: HRS 3.843 mil, HRW 2.667 mil, SRW 6.937 mil, SWW 1.909 mil, HWW 812k.Current year to date wheat loadings total 544.6 mil bushels compared to last year at 611.5 mil.
- Japan is in for their weekly wheat tender.
- KWH/K continue a firmer tone, trading to -7 overnight, with WH/K steady at -3.5 [but did trade early in to -2.25]
Outlook: wheat markets saw both sides of unchanged, up a bit, down a little. WH19 was able to climb back above the 100 day moving average [$5.23] as technical support came into play. Otherwise, the market still feels that there is building export interest in HRW and SRW as expected. Calls: flat/unchanged