Morning Highlights


Highlights 

  • CME grain markets will be closed Monday for President’s Day.  Following a regular close today, the grain markets will not re-open until Monday night, February 18th, at 7:00pm CT.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up .117 at 97.135, Crude Oil up $.58 at $54.99, Dow up 78 at 25505 and Gold up $7.70 at $1321.60.
  • In their long term ag projections released yesterday, USDA is projecting net farm income in 2019 at $77.6 billion, up $8.4 billion from last year.  A drop in cash expenses is expected to more than offset lower gross income.  The St. Louis Fed does not appear as optimistic, as they reported 20 consecutive quarters of declining farm income with only a slight increase expected in Q1 2019. 

Corn

  • BAGE estimated that the Argentina corn crop has completed planting and kept their production estimate at 45 mmt.  USDA is currently at 46 mmt.
  • Informa raised their corn acreage estimate by 100k acres to 91.6 million.  That would be 2.5 million more than last year.
  • South Korea’s NOFI bought 69 tmt of corn, optional origin.
  • The U.S. Ag Attache in Australia raised their estimate of sorghum production by 760 tmt to 2.2 mmt, due to an increase of planted area. 

Outlook:  Price reversals lower yesterday are seeing little follow-through today as markets assess new trade headlines. 

Oilseeds

  • The average estimate for the NOPA January crush is 169.575 million bushels, which would be a new record high if realized.  The report will be released at 11:00am CT.
  • Informa lowered their soybean acreage estimate by 160k acres to 86 million.  That would be a decline of 3.2 million from last year.
  • BAGE left their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop at 53 mmt, USDA is currently at 55 mmt, but said acres could decline after flooding in some areas.
  • China’s May contract of their Dalian soybean futures, closed down 13 ¼ cents/bu last night. 

Outlook: The seesaw of trade negotiation headlines has brought some buying back to the bean market this morning, as prices approached support lines in yesterday’s trade. 

Wheat

  • Algeria bought 600 tmt of milling wheat yesterday at about $14/tonne cheaper price than their last tender in January.  Traders expect it to be of France origin.
  • Paris Milling Wheat futures are down the U.S. equivalent of 7 ½ cents/bu and several KC wheat futures made new contract lows in overnight trade.
  • Informa estimated Other Spring Wheat plantings at 13.6 million acres, down 140k from their previous estimate.  That would be almost a million more than last year. 

Outlook: Hard to find much positive news for wheat, but we have a 3 day weekend ahead of us that may affect today’s trade.