Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Late yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order to streamline the review process for agricultural biotechnology including genetically modified livestock and seeds.
  • The latest 7-day GFS model shows up to 4 inches falling across a majority of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, while the balance of the corn belt is forecasted to get upwards of an inch of rain. The 6-10 day forecasts are still calling for below average temperature and above average rain amounts.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was up 0.040 to 96.726 points.
  • The Dow Jones mini futures are down 77 points overnight to 25,988.
  • The energy markets made a big move lower overnight. Nearby crude is up $1.46 to $51.81 per barrel.

    Corn

  • The corn market traded lower in the overnight session on profit taking after the big move higher yesterday.
  • Weekly ethanol production will be released today at 9:30 am central time.
  • Taiwan’s MFIG purchased around 65,000 tonnes of corn in a tender overnight, thought to be sourced from Brazil.
  • FranceAgriMer raised their estimate for French corn ending stocks from 2.7 mmt to 3.0 mmt for 18/19.
  • Chinese corn futures were down 3 ¼ cents overnight.
  • The USDA surprised the market yesterday and dropped their yield estimate 10 bpa to 166 bpa in the latest supply and demand report. That was well below the average analyst estimate. The USDA also dropped planted acres 3 million to 89.8 million. The US carryout dropped to 1.675 billion bushels and the world carryout estimate dropped to 290.5 mmt.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ½ cent carry, N/Z 18 ¾ cent carry, Z/H 8 ¼ cent carry, Z/N 12 ¾ cent carry.

    Outlook: Despite trading lower in the overnight, futures should find some strength as we price in a large production cut in 19/20 production and additional rain in the forecast.

    Oilseeds

  • The soybean market was lower overnight as follow through pressure gets added after the bearish USDA report yesterday.
  • Robert Johansson, USDA Chief Economist, is quoted as saying the USDA is set to revise its US soybean acreage and yield estimate in the July Supply and Demand report. He also said, “I think we didn’t have enough information to go on right now to change those soybean numbers”.
  • South Korea’s MFG purchased around 60,000 tonnes of soymeal in an overnight tender.
  • The USDA did not make any adjustments to the US soybean acreage, 84.6 million acres, or their yield estimate, 49.5 bpa. They did however cut 18/19 demand, bringing the old crop carryout above one billion to 1.07 billion bushels. That also brought the 19/20 carryout to 1.045 billion bushels. The world carryout was nominally lower at 112.66 mmt.
  • Malaysian palm oil was down 39 ringgits to 1,968 ringgits. Weekly change of down 60 ringgits. Chinese soybean futures were down 19 ¼ cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ cent carry, Q/U 7 ¼ cent carry, U/X 13 ½ cent carry, X/N 41 ¾ cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to lower off the open as the market tries to price in the new carryout level of over 1 billion bushels.

    Wheat

  • The wheat market moved slightly higher overnight after getting a relatively neutral report in yesterday’s Supply and Demand.
  • The Philippines tendered to purchase 55,000 tonnes of wheat overnight.
  • The USDA made some slight adjustments on the wheat balance sheet in yesterday’s WASDE report: 19/20 yield was raised 0.1 bpa, 18/19 exports went up 25 million bushels, and 19/20 feed demand was raised 50 million bushels. All told, ending stocks went down 69 million bushels to 1.072 billion bushels.
  • Spreads: N/U Chicago 3 ¼ cent carry, KC 12 ¾ cent carry, Mpls 8 ¼ cent carry.

Outlook: Lower off the open ahead of the USDA report.