6/18/2019 8:35:59 AM
“if market volatility persists it may also impact July options expiration and futures delivery cycles… please be diligent in managing these risks over the next couple weeks.”
- The USDA’s updated acreage and June 1 grain stocks report is scheduled for June 28th at 11 AM CDT. Next week is the end of the month of June and the end of another quarter.
- July options expiration is at the close this Friday. FND for July futures is Friday June 28th.
- Energy markets are mixed with crude oil trading just shy of $52/barrel.
- The US$ is up 166 at 97.72 and the gold market is 10-11 bucks higher at 1350. The DJIA up 22 at 26112, S&P up 17 at 2909.
- The Federal Reserve meeting begins today with the release of their meeting minutes tomorrow afternoon.
- Corn prices traded lower on profit taking, with the bulk of the corn crop planted.
- The July contract met resistance near $4.60, failing to touch that level or push through it. The December contract poked above $4.70 but was not able to hold at or above that level.
- Conditions were unchanged at 59% G/E, while many in the trade were expecting a 1-2% improvement.
- Planted acres were reported at 92% complete, with the best guess for unplanted acres around 7-8 million. It could take a few months to get a better feel for just how many acres did not get planted.
- Armyworms have been detected in 5 of Taiwan’s counties.Production losses from 20-30% are expected throughout their wheat, corn, sorghum and rice crops
- Spreads: N/U 6 ½ carry, U/Z 7 ½ carry, Z/H 5 ¾ carry, Z/N 7 ½ carry, N20/Z20 48 inverse.
Outlook: Choppy trade expected ahead of next week’s USDA data and month/quarter end positioning
- Soybeans opened higher on less than expected planted acres. Prices turned lower on a bout of profit taking and weakness in the corn market. The November came within 2 cents of the $9.50 resistance area but failed to hold at that level.
- There is a gap in the July contract from $9.00 ¾-$8.98 ¼. There is also a gap in the November contract from $9.27 ½-$9.24 ¾.
- The traded was expecting 79% of the crop to be planted while the USDA reported that only 77% of the crop had been planted as of Sunday. The first conditions report is expected to be in next week’s report.Conditions ratings usually begin once the crop is around 90% planted.
- Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ carry, Q/X 20 ¼ carry, X/F 11 ½ carry, X/N 24 ¼ carry.
Outlook: lower trade on spillover weakness in corn and technicals
- The wheat market traded lower on weakness in the corn market, technical selling and better than expected winter wheat crop conditions. More rain events are forecast for the Southern Plains tonight.
- Japan tenders for 61,864 tonnes of US wheat (29k white, 12k HRW and 20k spring) for August shipment.
- The Romanian wheat cargo undergoes a 2nd test at an Egyptian port. The initial rejection was on falling numbers and TW issues.
- Russian and Ukrainian wheat areas remain warm and dry for this and next week.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 6 ¾ carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 12 carry, N9/N0 69 ½ carry, U9/U0 67 ¼ carry.
Outlook: lower trade on technicals and corn weakness