Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • USDA’s July WASDE will be released at 11 am CDT on Thursday July 11th.

  • The US and China will continue negotiations by phone this week.

  • Weather forecasts are overall favorable for crop development.  As long as the dryness doesn’t linger, conditions should improve.

  • Nymex crude oil is slightly higher, the US$ index is 150 ticks higher and Dow futures are lower.   

     

Corn

  • Corn conditions improved by 1% to 57% good/excellent this week. The 5 year average is 72%. The only year with a lower score in recent memory is 2012 at 48%.

  • Army worms have been found in the 20th province in China. No damage has been reported yet, but its hard to believe a problem could be this widespread without some kind of negative impact to crop production.   

  • Corn inspections were pretty good yesterday posting the best total in the past month. However, the inspection pace continues to lose ground to the USDA level. 

  • The USDA ag attaché to China has corn production at 230 million tons vs the USDA level of 254 million tons. 

  • Spreads: N/U 1 carry, U/Z 4 carry, Z/H 8 carry, Z/N 14 carry.

  • Deliveries: 440 contracts.

     

Outlook:  7 lower as the extended forecasts are looking favorable.

 

Oilseeds

  • Soybean planting advanced to 96% complete.  This means there is roughly 3 million acres unplanted.     

  • Soybean conditions dropped by 1% to 53% good/excellent.

  • Soybean inspections were just average and have slipped to right on the USDA export pace.

  • Deliveries: 400 contracts.

  • Spreads: N/Q 3½ carry, N/X 21 ½ carry, X/F 11 ½ carry, X/N 38 ¼ carry.

 

Outlook: 5 lower as the bean market stays locked into a downward trend.

 

Wheat

  • Yesterday morning, Egypt’s supply minister says they have sufficient wheat supplies for 4 ½ months.  Later in the afternoon, they issued a new tender for wheat. Ukraine posted the lowest offers and no US wheat was in the lineup. 

  • Winter wheat crop conditions improved by 1% to 64% good/excellent. Spring wheat ratings improved by 3% to 78%. The spring wheat ratings are right in line with last year when record yields were seen.

  • The wheat harvest progressed to 47% complete but that is still way behind the average of 61%.

  • France’s farm ministry is pegging the soft wheat crop at 37 million tons. This is a jump of 8.5% more than last year’s crop.

  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 1 inverse, U/Z 15 carry, Kansas City N/U 9 carry, U/Z 22 carry, WN/U 8 inverse, U/Z 12 carry.  

     

Outlook: 3 to 8 lower on improved crop conditions and overall weakness in the grain space.