Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • USDA’s July WASDE will be released at 11 am CDT on Thursday July 11th.

  • The US and China will continue negotiations by phone this week.

  • Bulgaria is now reporting new outbreaks of African Swine Fever in backyard pig farms.

  • Major oil producers are pulling stuff and shutting production at many deep water gulf platforms in advance of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • Japan’s weather bureau said that the current El Nino has ended.  They also predict a neutral pattern through the end of the year.

  • Hog futures will have expanded limits of $4.50 today after settling limit up yesterday.

  • Nymex crude oil is higher, the US$ index is 42 ticks lower and Dow futures are lower.   

     

Corn

  • Ukraine’s weather center said the corn crop could match last year’s record total of 36 million tons due to good weather.  The USDA has the crop at 33 million tons.   

  • Analyst’s estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are out. Corn harvested acres have a huge range between 76.2 and 84.3 million acres. Corn yields range between 162 and 167 bpa.    

  • China is reporting that the army worm problem is still spreading. China is urging farmers to buy pesticides to help control the situation.   

  • India has lowered the import taxes on 400,000 tons of corn. Last year’s drought has caused feed prices to rise.   

  • Ethanol data will come out at 9:30 cst.  Production has been very high despite negative margins.

  • Spreads: N/U 1 carry, U/Z 4 ½ carry, Z/H 7 carry, Z/N 14 carry.

     

Outlook:  3 lower as the weather forecasts are looking favorable.

 

Oilseeds

  • Estimates for soybean harvested acres on tomorrow’s WASDE range from 78.1 to 83.2 million. Soybean yields range from 47 to 51 bpa.     

  • Palm oil is lower for the third day in a row.

  • White house economic adviser Larry Kudlow said China was expected to move forward with agricultural purchases from the United States as trade talks resumed.

  • Spreads: N/Q flat, N/X 21 ½ carry, X/F 12 carry, X/N 38 ¾ carry.

 

Outlook: 3 higher early, but I think the gains are going to be hard to hold if corn and wheat remain weak.

 

Wheat

  • Even though they said they had adequate supplies, Egypt bought 240,000 tons of wheat in their latest tender. The wheat was sourced from Romania and the Ukraine. US wheat was not offered.   

  • The US wheat harvest marches on and most are reporting good yields.  Vomitoxin has not been an issue but protein levels are about ordinary.

  • Australia’s wheat crop is expected to rebound from last year’s 17.2 million ton crop to 21.5 million tons this year. This total is below their average and also below the USDA estimate.

  • Ukraine’s wheat harvest is 40% complete. Production looks to remain in line with last year.  

  • FranceAgriMer cut their projection for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union by 50,000 MT from June to 9.70 MMT.

  • Spreads: Mpls N/U flat, U/Z 13 ¾ carry, Kansas City N/U 1inverse, U/Z 21 carry, WN/U 7 inverse, U/Z 12 ¾ carry.  

     

Outlook: choppy on both sides of unchanged.